Has the US traded Ukraine for Taiwan?

This has been discussed in Washington for some time, but for many in Ukraine it has become a sensation. For some, it was a reason to talk about "betrayal" and that Taiwan would receive weapons at the expense of Ukraine. This, of course, is nonsense, as everyone will get "their share.”

But the foreign policy implications of this step will be very, very serious and worth discussing. For the first time, Taiwan will receive weapons at the expense of American aid, not by purchasing them, in the same way we receive them. In the US Congress, it will be easier to secure support for such a "joint" request, as there will be less debate among Republicans and a bipartisan consensus will be easier to build. But the Kremlin will read this as a sign of weakness and the correctness of its tactic of "waiting it out and exhausting the West."

“It would be nice to meet this threat with a decision to provide Ukraine with new weapons, such as longer-range missiles. China would definitely not like this, to put it bluntly. When Taiwan used to buy weapons, they often did not arrive on time, not least for political reasons.”

Now the stakes are rising, with Taiwan's presidential election next January, which will be a rubicon for Chinese strategy and tactics. The space for China to play is very wide, with candidates from three parties, not two, as before. The Chinese are well aware of American domestic politics and are unlikely to "fall for" retaliation for supplying weapons to Russia - they are not interested in getting sanctioned by the West.

But whether they will really put pressure on Russia to get a faster and better result for us is a big question. And raising the stakes with military aid before the Taiwanese elections may increasingly shift the focus from Ukraine to Taiwan, which is something we don't need this fall. This analysis can be continued almost endlessly, but one conclusion is obvious: what happens around Taiwan will affect the focus of attention on us, Ukraine. And it is not in our interests to "compete" for this attention.

Source

About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.