Espreso. Global
OPINION

Key events likely to impact Ukraine in 2025

1 January, 2025 Wednesday
14:42

I believe Russia, emboldened by its success in Georgia, will continue exploiting democratic vulnerabilities, using elections as a strategic weapon

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For these reasons, I think Trump’s inauguration might initiate some negotiation movements, but the pivotal date will be October 2025. Our logistics — and therefore our capabilities — will hinge on Moldova’s elections.

Key dates according to my analysis:

20/01/2025 – Trump’s inauguration.

26/01/2025 – Lukashenko’s elections. No major upheavals are likely.

23/02/2025 – Bundestag elections. Will shape the stance of a key country the U.S. might lean on regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war.

25/03/2025 – New conscription rules in Russia: fewer exemptions from military service, signaling a likely mobilization increase.

23/03/2025 – Romania’s presidential elections. Possible attempts by Russian special services to exploit the situation in an EU and NATO member state.

March 2025 – China’s "two sessions" meetings, involving the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

May 4, 11, or 18, 2025 – Poland’s presidential elections.

June 24-25, 2025 – NATO summit in The Hague.

June 2025 – G7 meeting in Canada, which Trump refers to as the "51st state."

No later than October 2025 – Moldova’s parliamentary elections.

As demonstrated by events in Israel (2023) and Syria (2024), scheduled and publicized events are crucial, but unexpected developments can have just as much impact.

Source

About the author. Petro Okhotin, political scientist, soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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