Key events likely to impact Ukraine in 2025

For these reasons, I think Trump’s inauguration might initiate some negotiation movements, but the pivotal date will be October 2025. Our logistics — and therefore our capabilities — will hinge on Moldova’s elections.

Key dates according to my analysis:

20/01/2025 – Trump’s inauguration.

26/01/2025 – Lukashenko’s elections. No major upheavals are likely.

23/02/2025 – Bundestag elections. Will shape the stance of a key country the U.S. might lean on regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war.

25/03/2025 – New conscription rules in Russia: fewer exemptions from military service, signaling a likely mobilization increase.

23/03/2025 – Romania’s presidential elections. Possible attempts by Russian special services to exploit the situation in an EU and NATO member state.

March 2025 – China’s "two sessions" meetings, involving the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

May 4, 11, or 18, 2025 – Poland’s presidential elections.

June 24-25, 2025 – NATO summit in The Hague.

June 2025 – G7 meeting in Canada, which Trump refers to as the "51st state."

No later than October 2025 – Moldova’s parliamentary elections.

As demonstrated by events in Israel (2023) and Syria (2024), scheduled and publicized events are crucial, but unexpected developments can have just as much impact.

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About the author. Petro Okhotin, political scientist, soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.