From China's "peace plan" to Hungary's shuttle diplomacy

We should talk about Orbán, as he has become increasingly influential. On one hand, he’s the Kremlin’s most trusted figure in Europe… on the other, he’s the most loyal European acolyte of Trump. This year alone, he met with Trump multiple times, only to later call the Kremlin. Recently, Orbán unexpectedly visited Turkish President Erdoğan, his NATO counterpart, who, like Orbán, sometimes plays for the "opposite team."

Orbán himself hinted at the purpose of his shuttle diplomacy by proposing a "Christmas truce" - a truce without any security guarantees for Ukraine and no clear plan for the future. Essentially, it’s a simplistic freeze of the conflict along the front lines - a Putin-like idea, repackaged with a Hungarian twist.

Orbán essentially tries to repackage Putin’s “peace plan” into a new guise that he can present to the rest of Europe. At its core is a Putin-like logic and traditional Russian brainwashing: stripping Ukraine of military and financial support, and then forcing Kyiv into a capitulation ultimatum.

But is this the kind of surrender plan the future head of the White House expects? From his public statements, it is clear that he wants to make a deal with Ukraine that is favorable to him. This is a deal that most of the visible and behind-the-scenes participants will be happy to support.

Therefore, Trump's team avoids outlining the contours of a future agreement, focusing instead on monitoring the controversial wishes of interested players: from Kyiv to Moscow, from Brussels to Beijing, and, surprisingly, from Budapest to Ankara. What matters is not the rationality or fairness of the proposals, but the political weight of the messenger.

In this context, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán's shuttle diplomacy appears as a concept substitution: he gathers a pool of states capable of shifting Brussels' collective mindset and, ultimately, pressuring Ukraine. It's a reverse "mutual benefit."

Orbán is bluffing, and his initiative will only gain significance in Trump's eyes if the position of the Old World — much of which remains on Kyiv's side but largely adopts a passive stance — weakens. It is only after weighing the positions of pro-Kremlin and pro-Western forces that the words of the new-old American president about "the only way to achieve an agreement is not to abandon Ukraine" will take on concrete meaning.

One can hope that Trump has learned the lessons from his first presidency, when his administration negotiated a peace deal with the Taliban for a ceasefire and political understanding between the official government and the Taliban. However, the militants used this "peace plan" as a stepping stone to seize power in the country. The same could happen with "Orbanizing" Trump: a sudden halt in funding for Ukraine would not lead to peace, but rather encourage Russian aggression.

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About the author. Orest Sokhar, journalist, chief editor at Obozrevatel.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.