Will Putin's latest bet pay off?
The West is trapped. It fears that Russia will win the war, but it is even more afraid to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to make sure that Russia loses the war
Western politicians often find themselves in a precarious situation, much like someone perched on top of a barbed wire fence. Any direction they choose can lead to a painful outcome. This strategic indecision puts the West in a vulnerable position, and Putin is well aware of it.
There is a paradoxical situation where many decision-makers in the United States and a united Europe believe that if Ukraine wins, a nuclear war will break out. Having made this erroneous conclusion, they continue to pursue policy toward Ukraine along these lines.
In reality, the situation is diametrically opposite. If Russia were to win, it is guaranteed that Putin would then attack one or more NATO member states. And this would be the beginning of World War III, which would indeed be nuclear. And China will coordinate an attack on Taiwan with a new Russian invasion of Europe.
From the beginning, NATO's main goal was to prevent Marxist-Leninist communist Russia and its Warsaw Pact allies from taking over Western Europe. This mission ceased to exist after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the removal of the Communist Party from power. But America and Europe recklessly believed that the Russian Federation could indeed become a democracy, and now we see the consequences of this tragic mistake in Ukraine.
NATO was clearly not fully prepared for the Russian invasion of the sovereign state of Ukraine. Although Moscow has long made no secret of its claims to global hegemony and has been purposefully seeking allies among terrorist regimes.
Putin's current strategy can be summarized as follows: not to lose the war to Ukraine before the 2024 presidential election in the United States. The Russian dictator is waiting for a change of power in Washington and a crack in the Western coalition that supports Ukraine's liberation war against imperial Russia. He hopes that if Donald Trump takes office, he will quickly recognize the Ukrainian state as a zone of strategic interest for Moscow.
"Ukraine will not lose as long as America remains committed to its defense," said John Nagl, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel who currently teaches warfare at the US Army War College, "Ukraine is facing its greatest threat right now not from Russia, but from political dysfunction in Washington.”
The US has done a lot to support Ukraine. But more is needed
It is safe to say that America is facing a crucial choice today. After all, the process of destroying the global influence of the United States will undermine the international order and level all previous American geopolitical achievements that have been made since the end of World War II. If Ukraine loses to Russia, the whole world will fall into the darkness of totalitarian despotism, so Ukraine's defeat will be America's defeat.
America has done a lot to support Ukraine, but it needs to do even more to make sure that Ukraine wins its fight against the insidious Moscow invader as soon as possible.
Those in the US political establishment who are now blocking the administration of President Joe Biden from continuing to provide multilateral assistance to Ukraine would do well to remember the following. Russia is ruled by a mafia-style leader who launched a criminal war of aggression against a civilized Eastern European country that did nothing to provoke it, wants to unite with the democratic countries of the European Union, and does not want to become part of a new Russian Empire, as the dictator, who has gone mad with permissiveness, wants.
Putin has made it clear that he does not respect either the previous treaties signed by the Russian Federation with Ukraine or the principles of the UN Charter regarding respect for the sovereignty of nations. What matters to him is the opportunity to expand the territory of the Russian Federation by illegally seizing Ukrainian land. He cannot stand democracy, as its introduction in Russia would mean the loss of power for him and his accomplices, who are all strongly connected by common crimes.
And if he were to somehow succeed in what he now calls a war against the West, he could greatly expand his power and influence in Europe, embolden like-minded dictators around the world, and threaten free economies and democratic governments on the European continent. In other words, he poses the greatest threat to global security since his predecessor, Adolf Hitler.
Now, the successful continuation of Ukraine's defense in the bloody war with Muscovy is determined by whether President Joe Biden and his team will be able to push Congress to continue funding assistance to the Ukrainian state.
And everything that happens after that will depend on whether Ukraine can secure further victories on the battlefield and, in the end, on the outcomes of the upcoming presidential election in America. Unfortunately, these two factors will remain interconnected. The White House must realize this and be prepared to be less conservative about the weapons it is willing to provide to Ukraine. The next 6-12 months will be completely decisive not only for Ukraine's future historical fate but also for America's — it will determine whether it will remain a world leader and whether Western civilization will continue to determine the priorities for the further development of humanity.
Radicals in the Republican Party vote for the genocide of Ukrainians
It is disturbing that Putin and some radicals in the Republican Party have been using the same political rationale in their speeches for some time now. It is as if the same speeches are being copied over and over again. How could it be that they use the same interpretation of this topic in their struggle to cut off financial and military aid to Ukraine? And their arguments for a swift resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war look as if it was Ukraine that attacked Russia.
The radical anti-Ukraine members of the Republican Party should think carefully about what might happen if the United States suddenly stopped providing aid to Ukraine.
- Ukraine will eventually lose the war in which its citizens gave everything they had to avoid being absorbed by totalitarian Russia.
- The reason will be the United States, not only because it failed to provide support, but also because it is responsible for the 1994 agreement. It was they who encouraged Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons, the absence of which now threatens the existence of the Ukrainian state.
- No country will ever again, under any circumstances, trust any security guarantees provided by the United States.
- Those Republican politicians who want to permanently cut off any assistance to Ukrainians in such a tragic time for us must understand that the collapse of Ukraine's statehood, the purging of patriotic citizens by Russia's special services, Russian atrocities against civilians, concentration camps, and the replacement of the Ukrainian population in the occupied country with ethnic Russians will be on their conscience.
- The radicals in the Republican Party are voting for the genocide of Ukrainians in the 21st century, doing their best to help Putin carry it out in Ukraine.
It turns out that the same Republicans who have always championed a robust national defense are actually focused on funding the extensive American military-industrial complex. Meanwhile, they are reluctant to provide assistance to those who are battling to safeguard the survival of their own nation.
When Putin says that he wants to revive the USSR, he is, as always, lying. The dictator is trying to revive tsarist Russia with himself as the tsar. He can voice any justification for his invasion of Ukraine, but it is basically a step towards realizing his vision of the role of "historical" imperial Russia. It is not the Bolshevik Revolution that has become his model, and he looks back to the legacy of the Russian tsars in search of his ideal.
This geopolitical maniac is obsessed with the destruction of Ukraine. As Putin recently said in reference to the war in Ukraine that he unleashed, "this is our first priority. This is where the day begins and this is where it ends." With the Russian-Ukrainian war, among other things, he is trying to cover up the almost twenty-five years of stealing by his regime in Russia. This caused the Russian Federation to become an even more regressive and economically failed state. And to stay in power, the usurper is now ready to do anything. Therefore, he needs to be stopped in Ukraine rather than waiting for him to start wars with other European nations.
It so happened that the pro-Putin part of the Republicans temporarily handed a tactical victory to Russia in Congress by voting to deny Ukraine the expected aid. And by a strange coincidence, this happened on the 85th anniversary of the signing of the Munich Agreement of 1938, the most shameful conspiracy of all time. Which eventually led to the Second World War and millions of human lives lost in it.
It is very surprising that the Republican Party, which during the Cold War consistently and purposefully fought against communism and the totalitarian USSR, certainly did the most to disintegrate the totalitarian empire, and always supported Ukrainians in their quest to get rid of the Russian imperial yoke and restore their statehood, is now almost a useful tool for the reconstruction of a new Russian empire.
An empire aimed at defeating the United States as the world's leading political and economic power and ending the prosperity of the American people that automatically follows.
One can say that the radicalized part of the Republican Party has not only succeeded in Congress in cutting off aid to Ukraine but has created a situation that could have long-term adverse consequences for America and cause a political devaluation of everything it has always stood for.
About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.