Weather and Ukraine's Armed Forces don't allow Russians to advance in East and South Ukraine: either storm, or man-made "Neptune" can destroy plans of 'rashists' - Zgurets

The conversation took place on the air of the Espreso TV channel as part of the Vasyliy Zyma Big Air program.

We'll start, as I understand it, with a map?

What is important to say about today? There are several trends that deserve special attention, and first of all, everyone talks about a big Russian offensive that will affect the further military campaign. But in explaining this process, I will start with the weather, because now it has a decisive influence on the battlefield situation. Since the second phase of the deal started on April 19, hostilities began along all lines, but there was no offensive. It turns out that the Russian generals expect after prolonged downpours the ground will dry up and then they can operate on a wide front. Attempts to operate on roads or a wider front in poor, slippery and damp soil result in casualties. We expect that as soon as the ground dries up, the Russians are going to attack. But are they strong enough? Significant amount of the Russian military potential, concentrated in East and South Ukraine, is estimated at 70 battalion tactical groups. This is about 60 thousand personnel. But this is when we count "cubes". British and American experts and analysts say the Russians are now critically short of personnel. Process occurs when the accumulated forces immediately go into battle. It seems that they really can not provide an advantage in personnel. This is typical for the current moment. The general situation is similar to the previous days: fighting along the entire line of confrontation, as well as on the flanks of the Joint Forces Operation grouping, and attempts to operate in the Izyum area in the direction of Kramatorsk.  But the Russians can not perform breakthrough actions, I repeat, because they have no forces.

Another direction in which the Russians would have wanted to achieve a certain result for a longer time, but after certain events, specifically sinking of the Moskva cruiser and the destruction of other Russian ships. This plan has not yet been implemented, we are talking about a landing in South Ukraine. All attention is focused on Odesa, but is Odesa the place where the Russians want to land their  amphibious assault?

The subject of amphibious assault arises from time to time. It was especially relevant at the beginning of the 2nd phase of hostilities. Then it was hampered by storms, fighting in other directions. Now all Russian landing ships are involved in capsizing forces and equipment on the coast near Mariupol. But this does not mean that the threat of landing has disappeared. According to our assessments of foreign analysts, the Russians plan to conduct an amphibious landing operation within the Mykolaiv region with a landing in the Ochakiv area. I mean the organization of offensive operations in other directions in this area to make it impossible for our troops to carry out counter-offensives in other directions, to pin down our forces and create the preconditions for an offensive if they suddenly succeed. But I think that the weather will interfere just as much as it happens in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions. Either a storm or a man-made "Neptune" can systematically destroy the plans of the 'rashists'.

The Russians have their own plans in Ukraine. Obviously, they manage to realize something somewhere for one reason or another. The main thing is that Ukraine does not have enough weapons. To a greater extent, the Russians fail to achieve the objectives. But something is happening in Russia itself. The fact that they have crazy fires there in Siberia, which there is no one to extinguish, because those who have to extinguish them are fighting in Ukraine, and they are also burning near the borders with Ukraine. So we all watched how the fire went up to Bryansk and before that it burned in Belgorod.

Burning of an oil storage facility in Bryansk, strategic oil storage facility, with the 120th base of Russia's artillery armament nearby, where there are large reserves of fuel, is a bad stern. Why these vaults exploded, there are no explanations yet. This creates significant problems for the logistical needs of the Russian army. Much more interesting was the story when on April 1, in Belgorod, a similar storage facility exploded and the leadership of the Belgorod region said that it was an attack by Ukrainian helicopters. The Ukrainian side did not recognize this action, but we hope that there will be more and more such large fires on the territory of Russia. But besides this fire, today is also indicative of the fact that Russian aircraft once again carried out missile strikes on our territory. This is the further tendency of the Russians regarding pressure on our defense and our facilities. But when we talk about the use of missile weapons, which happened today, it was about hitting 5 railway points with cruise missiles, the leadership of Ukrainian Railways recognized it. I should explain what the 'rashists' strategy is. As we remember, the hostilities began with missile strikes, first directly on our air defense facilities and airfields, then Russians started destroying our military-industrial complex. The third stage: the destruction of oil depots, our fuel reserves in all regions of Ukraine. Now they are betting on cruise missile strikes at railway and logistics hubs, especially in West Ukraine. Why? Because now the amount of foreign military aid, which is transferred to Ukraine for the use of these logistics hubs, has significantly increased. Therefore, the Russians try to protect themselves in this way. But I don't think it will work. The main thing is that our air defense should work more efficiently.

It’s interesting how you will comment on this: in the temporary occupied territory of the Kherson region in the urban-type settlement of Velyka Oleksandrivka, the Russian invaders conduct forcible evacuation, telling people to leave, and those who will not leave until April 28, will be forcibly evicted. Why is this needed?

Perhaps they create additional tension in this zone or create any prerequisites for provocative actions, which can then be interpreted by the Russian side for propaganda purposes.