Trump vs Harris: real balance of power

According to a poll by DDHQ and The Hill, Trump is ahead of Harris by 2% (47 vs. 45), while the difference with Biden was about the same (46 vs. 43.5). The latest CBS News poll, released last week, showed Harris performing better than Biden against Trump: Harris is behind by 3% and Biden by 5. A CNN poll released after the first debate showed Harris closer to Trump than Biden. She was only 2% behind the former president, while Biden was 6.

At the same time, Trump is currently ahead of both Biden and Harris in most of the disputed states. He has a significant advantage in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the situation is almost equal in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan (all three have a minimal advantage for Trump), and Virginia (Democratic advantage). However, according to sociologists, the Trump-Harris pair has not been researched enough - most data is now based on less than 6 polls.

Harris's nomination may give a significant boost to her rating due to a significant increase in attention, as well as a number of obvious advantages over the candidates, which are discussed below.

However, the main joy for Democrats is the end of political uncertainty. Harris will still have to be endorsed by the Democratic Party at the convention, but most Democrats are already happy that the party's campaign can finally rely on a viable candidate. In addition, as vice president, who would run with Biden, it would be easy for her to take over the campaign's management and work with most donors.

The second joy for the Democrats is that Harris's nomination comes against the backdrop of Trump's vice presidential nomination of his clone, his henchman, "Mr Fentanyl" Vance. This deprives his campaign of any balance.  While Trump's victorious 2016 team was filled with representatives of the traditional establishment, the 2024 campaign is completely different - much more radical than even moderate Republicans expected.

Among Harris's clear disadvantages and advantages for Trump are her extreme left-wing bias (which balanced Biden himself in 2020) and the burden of her shared political legacy with Biden. Data analyst and sociologist Scott Tranter writes that Harris has a large shadow of Biden, but she can get rid of it and still have time for voters to look at her "in a new way". 

A moderate male vice-president could help her balance out her reputation as "too far left". In addition, Harris is only 59 years old (young by the standards of American politics), a black woman of Indian descent with a brilliant legal career. She can take advantage of Biden's strengths for Democratic audiences and doubters, but without having to constantly talk about the president's health and physical condition. Yes, the Democrats are running out of time, but this election is specific enough to allow for another reversal of trends and initiative.

In short, it will be interesting to watch. Trump is currently the favorite. But if the Democrats don't hesitate and continue to run an intense campaign (they now have a young, active candidate to do so), with a clear focus on swing states, they still have time to pull out.

P.S. This text is not about Harris's hypothetical policy towards Ukraine, which should be discussed separately. But in short, judging by her entourage, if she wins, it will be a continuation of Biden's policy. No, not betrayal, but a gradual expansion of escalation possibilities. It's unpleasant and needs to be done sooner, but predictable. Why Trump's supporters have convinced themselves that, if elected, he will follow Boris Johnson's methodology (lifting all restrictions on strikes against Russia), I do not understand in my heart. There are no signs of this.

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About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.