Ukraine may launch counteroffensive in a month if Western weapons arrive – Dr. Marina Miron

Both Kyiv and Moscow are suffering heavy losses as fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine. The commander of Ukrainian troops says that the situation in Bakhmut remains difficult, but Ukrainian soldiers are managing to repel Russian attacks. Is the defense of Bakhmut the best strategy now?

First of all, we have to look at the military logic, which is that if Bakhmut falls, the entire line of defense of the Ukrainian forces will collapse. That would be a tremendous loss for the Ukrainian forces, and given the fact that Ukraine has concentrated so much manpower near Bakhmut, it would be a waste to leave it to the Russians. So if the Ukrainian forces had retreated earlier to preserve more manpower, it might have been less painful. But now, with so much at stake, there is no retreat. 

I think President Zelenskyy agrees that Western officials are questioning this decision. We also know that General Syrskyi said that this is a way to make the Russians lose more manpower. The other side of this story is that the Russians wanted to use Bakhmut as a springboard to advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The problem is that they are likely to use Bakhmut for this purpose if they manage to take the city. And we're also seeing reports that allegedly Russian troops are coming from the north, from the Lyman, so they may want to close that section and reconnect with the group in Bakhmut. So there's a lot of speculation about what the Russians might do, but militarily, of course, it would be wise to save Bakhmut, and obviously we've heard that reserves are being deployed to the front line. 

We know that Chasiv Yar is still under Ukrainian control, so the situation is very, very difficult. We can't predict what's going to happen now because the Wagner Group says they're going to clamp down, so that's the idea of what they're doing in Bakhmut. On the other hand, Ukraine is deploying more forces, so there is hope that this attack can be stopped, and when the Russians reach the culmination of their attack and run out of forces, the Ukrainians may be able to launch a counteroffensive.

Yes, this makes sense, as the pace of Russian operations in Ukraine has slowed down and the Wagner offensive on Bakhmut is approaching its climax. At least, that's what the American Institute for the Study of War says. Do you agree with this assumption and what will happen next if Bakhmut remains under Ukrainian control? 

That would be a huge loss for the Russians because they are also fighting very hard for Bakhmut. Obviously, you remember that their idea was to hold Izium and Bakhmut to be able to continue to advance to Kharkiv, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. And now, if the Russians lose Bakhmut militarily, it will be a huge setback because their original plan will fail and it will be harder for them to supply their troops. This is from a military point of view, but from a political point of view, it will be even worse for the Russian side, because for the Russians it is a kind of symbolic victory, and after so many military failures, they need to show something. Now that we know that General Gerasimov is in charge of the 'special military operation' and he also has to show something, a failure in Bakhmut after all these losses of manpower and equipment will certainly destroy the morale in the Russian armed forces.

Every day we hear a lot of news about Western arms supplies to Ukraine. So when will Ukraine be able to break the deadlock with new weapons?

We now know that some of the Leopards have already arrived, and we also know that the crews are being trained in Spain and the UK. They are being trained to conduct joint operations because it is necessary. You can't just integrate tanks into the current system, they have to be combined with mechanized infantry with air support and with counter-drone measures, so Ukrainian troops have to be ready to use them as part of the system. 

According to some estimates, we will see the rest of the tanks sometime in early May and late April, because they have to be repaired to be able to be used in Ukraine. The crews also have to be ready because they are very different from all the Soviet prototypes. The Challenger is different as the crew of the tank is four people, not three, like the T-72, for example. It is the same with Leopards. And you also have to take into account the weather conditions in Ukraine, and other equipment that must be supplied with the tanks, such as bridge decks to be able to cross rivers, etc. So, all this needs to be prepared, and we hope that this will happen sometime in late April or early May. But the bigger problem is the 125-millimeter ammunition for the artillery, and that may take a little bit longer.

The Washington Post reported: “The quality of the Ukrainian military, which was previously considered a significant advantage over Russia, has deteriorated after a year or so.” So, the publication doubts whether it's possible to start the counteroffensive in May this year. 

Well, I have heard similar statements from my colleagues from other institutions. In fact, the whole point is that Ukraine has also lost a lot of combat-ready manpower, so the question is about the newly mobilized. And now we are coming to people who are trained abroad, so the idea of this counteroffensive is that these newly trained soldiers will lead the counteroffensive together with the newly mobilized. But it's a difficult combination, because I remember General Zaluzhnyi, I think, saying that we shouldn't force people to the front because they are demoralized. So there is a problem when it comes to different skill levels.

What do you think about plans to mobilize 400,000 people from Russia? 

I think Putin has to be very careful because in order to justify the mobilization, he will need to show something and demonstrate some progress. And I'm sure that the information machine in the Kremlin will convince people that this mobilization is necessary. But on the other hand, if the Kremlin doesn't capture Bakhmut, it will be very difficult to justify because of the heavy losses and because the Russian regime doesn't even say why they have Wagner mercenaries there. Some Wagner fighters who spoke to Western media said that they had to literally go over the corpses of Russian troops to move forward. 

Another problem is training, because it takes time. So you don't want to have newly mobilized people at the front who have no idea what they are doing, so it's a bigger danger because they can jeopardize the safety of those working in Ukraine. So it will take a long time, maybe five or six months, before we see them. So I think that Russia can mobilize, and I think that at some point Putin may try to do that, but I don't think we're going to see anything in the near future. At least it won't coincide with the counteroffensive that Ukraine is planning, because they just don't have the time.

Ukrainian officials say that there is a possibility that the Ukrainian army could liberate Crimea in the summer of 2023. What is your personal assumption on this?

Well, a lot will depend on many factors that are not necessarily related to the capabilities of the Ukrainian army. It will depend on the supply of weapons from Western allies, and we know that we have a huge delay with tanks. Do you remember when Poland promised to send tanks and when the forest tanks actually started to arrive? So I think the Ukrainian army needs both capabilities and equipment. Now Poland has said that it will send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, and they would really be useful for such an operation. 

However, we have to speculate here, assuming that the counteroffensive will take place somewhere in the Zaporizhzhia direction or Melitopol to interrupt Russian logistics. If the counteroffensive is somewhere else, I don't see how it can happen. So we have a lot of "ifs" here. And, of course, the Russians are preparing for this, and the last place they want to lose is Crimea. It would be a huge defeat for Russia, so I think they will fight to the last man to protect Crimea. It gives them access to the Black Sea and to the coast. And not only from a military point of view, but also from an economic perspective, because there is a lot of oil in the sea shelf, so the Russians do not want Ukraine to become independent in the sense of not buying energy from Russia.