Two months of war. Putin's goals and results, what will happen next? - Yuriy Butusov, Ukrainian journalist

Victory in a war is determined by strategy, let's look at Russian Federation strategy after two months of the war:

  1. The encirclement of the main administrative centers - Kyiv and Kharkiv, the disorganization of the country's administration and forcing the surrender of the Ukraine's leadership.

  Result: goals not achieved, surrender is impossible, the Ukraine's leadership continues the war, Kyiv and Kharkiv are reliably defended.

  2. Disruption of the mobilization deployment of Ukraine through a deep offensive on the territory of 11 regions.

  Result: goals not achieved, Ukraine continues to mobilize.

  3. Cutting the strategic highways of Ukraine west of Kyiv and north of Kryviy Rih to prevent NATO countries from providing any support and supplies.

  Result: goals not achieved, Ukraine has protected its communications, NATO is building up military support.

  4. The capture of the Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea and Azov regions, the creation of a corridor from the Russian Federation to Transnistria.

  Result: goals partially achieved - the Sea of ​Azov region was captured, but the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions were firmly defended, and the main seaports were reliably defended.

  5. Undermining the economy and demoralizing society in order to renounce organized resistance.

  Result: goals not achieved, the economy received the support of the West, society rallied for the war to victory, all political forces are directed to fight Russia.

  6. The collapse of the defense system, the elimination of military infrastructure.

  Result: goals not achieved, the defense forces began to receive powerful military assistance from NATO countries and significantly increased their combat capability. Russia has lost more than 3,200 pieces of military equipment and cannot compensate for such losses.

  7. Seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

  Result: goals not achieved, in two months Ukraine is defending large areas of Donbas and many large cities.

  What's next?

  1. Strategically, Putin has not been able to fully achieve any of his goals.

  2. Russia has become involved in a war of attrition against Ukraine, supported by all NATO countries and most countries of the world, which have dozens of times more resources.

  3. The capture of Mariupol will not change the strategic position of Russia in any way and will only lead to increased resistance, forcing Ukraine to refuse to compromise.

  4. The technological advantage in the war after the supplies of the West will gradually go over to the side of Ukraine, which will lead to heavy losses of the Russian Federation and the loss of the Russian army's ability to hold the occupied territories.

  5. To continue the war, Putin will have to carry out partial mobilization, which will cause enormous damage to the Russian economy and demoralize Russian society.

  6. Ukraine took the strategic initiative in the war. Russia is capable of some tactical successes, but it is unable to achieve any of its initial goals.

  7. Putin's strategy has failed and there is no chance of Ukraine's fall. The continuation, timing and cost of the war depend on Ukraine's ability to competently plan the use of available material and human resources, as well as the scale of attracting weapons resources and professional military personnel from abroad.