Serious crisis awaits Putin, all due to upcoming Russian presidential elections – political scientist Gallyamov

He stated this on Espreso.

“Putin is facing a significant crisis in relation to the upcoming presidential elections in March 2024. It remains uncertain whether he will cancel the elections, retain his position, or designate a successor. Putin's popularity has been below 50% for the past five years, with his electoral base now comprising only about a third of the voters. In such circumstances, even without considering the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, it is predicted that he would receive less than a third of the votes,” he said. 

The potential for election result falsification exists, but large-scale falsifications are usually scandalous and easily noticeable. 

“Such scandals often lead to protests, although the fear factor and potential intervention by security forces or the elite make a full-fledged protest uncertain. Therefore, those planning any conspiracy against Putin would seek a moment when his legitimacy is severely weakened. This could occur during a significant military defeat or an election scandal. Once Putin is no longer seen as a legitimate ruler, actions against him would be perceived as a restoration of legality rather than a rebellion,” he continued. 

Statistics on coups d'état in various countries indicate that such coups are more likely to occur in connection with elections. 

“This poses a significant challenge for Putin, as a weakened regime increases the chances of a fatal blow from the elites or the uprising population. If this crisis coincides with a powerful offensive from the Armed Forces and Russian volunteers continue their incursions into the Russian Federation, the chances of survival for the Putin regime are slim, estimated at roughly 50-50,” according to the analyst.

• On May 23, Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar emphasized that Putin's regime in the Russian Federation has sparked discontent among conscious Russians.

• Additionally, on May 29, specialists from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted Prigozhin's undermining of Putin's regime.