Russia's latest missile strike: spontaneous move or strategic shift?

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that Russia's massive missile strikes were expected to be delayed until late January, aligning with symbolic dates such as Donald Trump’s inauguration and the Ukrainian President’s birthday on January 25.

It seemed logical for Russia to stockpile ammunition for a series of systematic attacks, timed specifically for these key events. However, this plan was abandoned, and the result of recent strikes was far from impressive.  

Timeline of Russia's missile strikes  

1.December 13, 2024:  

   Russia launched a massive strike, firing 94 missiles of various types:  

   - 79 Kh-101/555 missiles

   - 24 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles

2. December 25, 2024 (Christmas):  

   Another wave of aerial attack followed, with 78 missiles launched, including:  

   - 62 Kh-101/555 missiles  

   -12 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles  

3. January 15, 2025:  

   After a 20-day pause, Russia fired 43 missiles, comprising:  

   - 31 Kh-101/555 missiles

   - 4 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles 

"The Russian occupation troops did not even launch the full capacity of what they could have produced in those 20 days, not to mention the stockpiles of these missiles in warehouses. This indicates that the attack was spontaneous and unorganized, on targets that were planned in advance, but on which a much larger number of missiles should have been used at a later date," Kovalenko concludes. 

The expert points out several possible reasons for this:

1. Insufficient strike capacity  

 Despite having the capacity to produce at least 40 Kh-101/555 missiles and 20 Kalibr missiles during the 20-day pause, Russia deployed far fewer missiles than expected, even despite its stockpiles.  

2. Disorganized strategy

The January 15 strike appeared uncoordinated and fell short of the systematic missile attacks previously anticipated. Planned targets were struck, but the number of missiles used was small, suggesting reactive decision-making.  

3. Impact of Ukrainian drone strikes  

 Sustained drone attacks by Ukrainian forces, particularly on Russian bases like Engels, forced Russia to accelerate its plans. The strikes seemed less like a calculated response and more like a reactionary move to mitigate vulnerabilities.  

4. Lack of confidence in air defenses

Russian military personnel reportedly have little trust in their air defense systems. Strategic aviation, fuel supplies, and munitions remain at risk, further undermining Russia’s operational stability.  

5. Panic action 

The January 15 strike resembled a hurried and disorganized response rather than a well-planned act of missile terror.  

Russia’s recent actions reflect growing challenges in maintaining a consistent and effective missile campaign. Disorganized strikes, insufficient missile usage, and reactive strategies indicate the pressure exerted by Ukrainian forces and the broader limitations of Russia’s military operations. 

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the targets of Russia's January 15 attack were Ukraine's gas infrastructure and energy facilities.