White House braces for significant challenge ahead

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that a ceasefire in the war with Ukraine would not satisfy Russia because it would allow Ukraine to prepare for an attempt to strategically defeat Russia, following the directives of its Western allies.

Lavrov stated that Russia would only accept legally binding agreements and a lasting peace. He also reminded that Moscow has never considered Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election as automatically leading to negotiations either in the Russian-Ukrainian war or on global security issues. The statement by the Russian Foreign Minister actually reflects the Kremlin's concerns about the further developments in the war against Ukraine.

In Kyiv, it is always believed that reaching a ceasefire with Russia may not be beneficial for our state because it would allow Russia to regroup its forces and deliver a new blow to Ukrainian statehood, seizing new territories of Ukraine.

Paradoxically, Moscow holds a similar view on a potential ceasefire. In the Russian capital, it is believed that if the war truly pauses, it will give the West an opportunity to continue rearming the Ukrainian army and pave the way for signing legally binding security guarantees between Ukraine and Western countries, which could significantly change the agenda up to Ukraine's admission to NATO.

Who can predict how the sentiments of Western societies and political elites may change in the near future if there is no large-scale war happening in Europe?

Thus, Russia seeks not a ceasefire, but an agreement that would provide clear guarantees of Ukraine's defeat and Russia's victory in this war. Defeat not in terms of the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood, but from the perspective of Ukraine recognizing the fact that at least part of its territories—namely, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea—are an inseparable part of Russian territory, naturally with the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of these regions that are currently controlled by the legitimate Ukrainian authorities.

Of course, we are aware of other conditions for such agreements—Ukraine must agree to a significant reduction of its Armed Forces, to a permanent neutral status with corresponding changes to its Constitution, to the special status of the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. These are the matters to be negotiated.

As can be understood, the guarantors of such a legally binding agreement will be the U.S., China, and likely EU countries, ensuring that such agreements are not violated and that Ukraine cannot be armed in the future. Meanwhile, Russia will, of course, continue military actions. Because from the Kremlin's point of view, halting hostilities would mean that Ukraine would gain additional opportunities to reject these capitulation terms and to rearm its Armed Forces for a more effective response to the aggressive claims of its neighboring country.

This, in essence, is the process that will unfold if Russia's conditions are agreed upon.

You might ask: "Why does Russia need this, given that a significant part of Ukraine's territory will still remain under the control of the legitimate Ukrainian government?"

However, do not forget that this will be a part of the territory whose population will clearly realize that the country has been defeated in the war, was forced to legally renounce its own territories, and the West did not protect it.

The creation of sentiments in such a country regarding coexistence with Russia, the rise to power of so-called realists, who in their political orientation would resemble something like the Georgian Dream party, is only a matter of time.

Ukraine, deprived of its Armed Forces and prospects for security guarantees, will not only fail to conclude any negotiations on joining the EU but will quickly find itself not even in the Collective Security Treaty Organization or the Eurasian Economic Union, but, pardon me, in the Union State of Russia and Belarus. That is, Vladimir Putin's dream, for which he launched his grand assault in February 2022, will be realized in such a simple way—without Russian troops appearing in the Ukrainian capital.

Yes, I can imagine this happening not immediately, not in a year or two, but sooner than anyone today could imagine, given Ukraine's current struggle against the perpetual missile attacks by Russian aggressors.

Do they realize this in the team of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump?

In my opinion, no. Both Trump himself and the vast majority of his advisors live in an entirely illusory world that excludes an understanding of the true goals of Russia and China. These people continue to live under the dangerous illusion that it is possible to negotiate with Putin. However, as we can see, Putin's latest statements and those of his associates leave no chance for Trump regarding so-called compromise agreements with Moscow and open a broad prospect for humiliating agreements that are humiliating not only for Ukraine but also for the new American president and his team.

Thus, in just a few weeks, the White House, along with all of us, will face a difficult challenge—either to agree to this humiliation, which will become a fiasco, I would say, for the global role of the United States, at least its influence in Europe, or to continue supporting Ukraine and intensify pressure on Russia, hoping not to negotiate with the Kremlin, but to put Russia in a situation where it will be forced to agree to the conditions of Washington and Kyiv.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.