Espreso. Global

War for Black Sea: prospects for Ukraine's trade route in 2024

Mariia Drobiazko
4 February, 2024 Sunday
14:11

The Black Sea has always been one of Ukraine's main trade routes. Therefore, when Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, Moscow immediately cut off Kyiv's access to the sea route

client/title.list_title

Espreso has analyzed how Ukrainians are repelling Russian aggression in the Black Sea, as well as the prospects for the functioning of Ukraine's trade route in 2024.

What the article is about:

  • The Black Sea blockade: the cost to Ukraine's economy
  • Confronting the Russian aggressor in the Black Sea: Ukraine restores grain corridor
  • Prospects for Ukraine's trade route in 2024

The Black Sea blockade: the cost to Ukraine's economy

2022 could have become a record year for Ukraine in terms of exports in the history of independence. In January-February 2022, Ukrainian exports showed positive growth dynamics compared to the same period last year, with an increase in exports of 34%.

However, Russia's full-scale invasion and the blockade of Ukrainian seaports ate up a third of Ukraine's economy. In total, in 9 months of 2022, Ukraine exported goods worth USD 33 billion, which is 31.5% less than the volume for the same period in 2021.

In 2021, ferrous metals ranked first among export categories of goods; in 2022, they lost ground to grain crops.

Other sectors that have experienced significant export reductions in 8 months of 2022 are: chemical products - 51%, machine building - 18%, furniture - 18%, agricultural and food products - 11%, clothing and footwear - 10%.

Grains and oilseeds account for almost 79% of agricultural and food exports. Before the war, 89% of Ukraine's grain exports were shipped through Black Sea ports. In 2021, Ukraine's ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, and Mykolaiv together handled up to 6 million tons of grain per month and were poised to set new records in 2022 thanks to investments in port infrastructure and a bumper harvest.

Even before the Russian invasion, sea routes of communication had already been partially blocked under the pretext of Russian military exercises. With the outbreak of the war, a full blockade was imposed on Ukrainian ports, and two of them, Berdyansk and Mariupol, were occupied by Russian troops.

Road and railroad transportation became the primary means of delivering grain to EU members, although this did not completely offset the negative impact of closed ports.

Ukraine lost 30% of its exports in 2022, and it seems unlikely that this loss will be made up in the near future. And while experts estimate that Ukraine's economy has already begun to recover, it will need more than USD 5 million in investment to expand export corridors and return to pre-war levels.

Confronting the Russian aggressor in the Black Sea: Ukraine restores grain corridor

Until July 17, 2023, a grain corridor operated in the Black Sea under the auspices of the UN and Turkey, but Russia unilaterally decided to withdraw from it.

It was always going to be dangerous for Ukraine to carve out its own makeshift corridor in the Black Sea in spite of Russian shelling. But for Ukraine, it was a strategic need. Its deepwater ports handled 60% of the nation's trade prior to the conflict. Cargo ships sailed from that location to markets in the Middle East and Africa. Russia engaged in economic warfare when it decided to reopen the Black Sea blockade. As a result, Ukraine started covertly creating a different path.

The goal of the Ukrainian strategy was to clear a path through the shallowest waters of the Danube. Without even a single vessel, Ukraine had to fight hard to cross its own grain corridor. The process took place in several stages.

During the initial weeks of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine successfully repelled Russian forces' seaborne assault and prevented the encirclement of Odesa in March 2022. 

Later, the Ukrainian forces managed to regain control over Zmiinyi Island by sinking the Moskva cruiser. Although the enemy ship was destroyed, Ukraine still could not guarantee the free movement of ships in the Black Sea, so new solutions to warfare were sought.

One of these solutions was naval drones, which have proven to be an effective weapon to deter the Russian aggressor. They helped Ukrainian forces paralyze the Black Sea Fleet by completely destroying or damaging such vessels as the Novocherkassk, Admiral Makarov, Ivan Golubets, Olenegorsky Gornyak, Sergey Kotov, Pavel Derzhavin, and Ivanovets.

In total, Ukraine managed to sink at least 22 of the 80 warships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and damage another 13. Enemy warships were completely driven out of the northwest, center, and southwest regions of the Black Sea by Ukraine in 2023, and Russia withdrew its most powerful ships to the Novorossiysk naval base.

The strategy worked: the three Odesa ports shipped 6.3 million tons of goods in December, nearly reaching pre-war levels. In a little over six months, 337 vessels have transported more than 10 million tons of cargo through this corridor.

Prospects for Ukraine's trade route in 2024

Thanks to the reopening of Odesa ports, Ukraine's exports could grow by at least USD 3.3 billion in 2024, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Economy. This will add stability to the exchange rate and 1.2% to the country's GDP growth.

Merchant ships are not fully protected, as Ukraine lacks air defense, international monitoring, and foreign military escorts. However, experts predict that the Black Sea trade route will continue to function, as a number of countries are willing to help Ukraine strengthen its naval and security capabilities.

One such initiative is the Maritime Coalition of the United Kingdom and Norway. This cooperation aims to strengthen security in the Black Sea, help restore maritime facilities, preserve freedom of navigation, and protect sea transportation routes. This includes the transfer of ships, amphibious vehicles, and other equipment to the Ukrainian Navy.

Britain has already planned to give Ukraine two Royal Navy trawler ships to improve security in the Black Sea. However, due to the Montreux Convention, Turkey currently does not allow these ships to enter the Black Sea. Although, it is likely that NATO partners will be able to find a solution later. 

Another initiative is a coalition of 3 NATO states on demining. The governments of the Republic of Bulgaria, Romania, and the Republic of Turkey signed a Memorandum of Understanding on January 11 in Istanbul, Turkey, to establish the Black Sea Maritime Mine Action Group (MSM Black Sea). The group will operate mainly in the exclusive economic zones and territorial waters of the member states to eliminate mine threats.

Though not a NATO mission, the minesweeping force will be the first significant cooperative effort by the Black Sea partners since President Vladimir Putin's order to launch the war against Ukraine in February 2022.

Therefore, with the help of partner countries, Ukraine has every chance to establish safe movement of ships in the Black Sea and restore its exports to pre-war levels.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2025, Tuesday
4 February
21:45
Gimli robotic complex joins Ukraine's army, aiding in evacuation and resupply
21:30
Exclusive
When could Ukraine hold elections after the war? Lawyer explains
21:12
Ryanair plans to resume flights to Lviv, Kyiv 4-6 weeks after war ends
20:57
Black Sea tankers wreck: IMO holds Russia responsible
20:40
"Don't let them drain resources": military commander reacts to Trump
20:23
Polish Military Institute of Armament Technology, Ukrainian NAUDI agree to cooperate
20:07
Exclusive
USAID funding freeze: Expert Riabtsev on potential risks for Ukraine’s energy sector
19:51
Exclusive
Trump's proposal to get rare metals from Ukraine is political move – analyst
19:35
"We are open to U.S. investments": Zelenskyy responds to Trump's statement on rare earth elements
19:08
Ukraine to introduce mandatory psychological aid training for doctors – First Lady
19:02
Updated
Russian ballistic missile strike on Ukraine’s Izyum kills 5, injures 52
18:50
Exclusive
Ukrainian forces may have to withdraw from Chasiv Yar – military analyst
18:33
Von der Leyen urges EU to find "most creative way" to use Russian assets for Ukraine
18:15
Exclusive
Western weapons can now strike deep into Russia, but new problem emerges
17:54
U.S., Ukraine did not discuss elections before 2025 — Ambassador Markarova
17:34
Updated
"The situation is critical": IAEA chief visits key substations vital for Ukraine's nuclear power plants
17:14
Russian national hockey team banned from 2026 World Championship
16:55
Ukraine’s HIV response at risk amid U.S. aid freeze
16:33
Support for military aid to Ukraine declines in Poland
16:15
Russia equips Gerbera foam drones with warheads
15:56
Ukraine’s parliament approves defense loan agreement with UK
15:32
Ukrainian troops release GoPro footage of repelling Russian assault, eliminating two squads
15:14
OPINION
Ukraine’s power sector withstands winter challenges, but risks remain
14:55
Ukraine’s embassy facilitates meetings between Zelenskyy, Trump teams — Ambassador
14:33
Hopes for Russian democracy met harsh reality – Ex-MP Kendzior on Ukrainian diaspora in 1990s
13:57
Review
Russian advance slows down, how Ukrainian Armed Forces approaches change. Serhiy Zgurets' column
13:35
U.S. firefighters document impact of Russian strikes in Ukraine, set to release second film
13:16
Exclusive
Ukraine takes key step in reforming Armed Forces management system – military expert
12:55
Norway provides significant aid to Ukraine but profits from war-driven revenues
12:34
Exclusive
Ukraine Russia war live map, January 15-22
Russian forces scale back assaults in Pokrovsk sector: Ukrainian officer explains why
12:14
Exclusive
Ukraine Russia war live map, January 22-29
Russian forces pushing to launch battle for Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region
11:51
Ukraine retakes positions in Kupyansk, Russian command threatens troops with execution for retreating
11:32
OPINION
Where will Putin and Trump meet?
11:15
North Korean troops no longer fighting in Russia’s Kursk region — South Korean intel
10:53
110 clashes reported at front as Russian forces launch over 6,000 attacks on Ukraine
10:34
Russian army continues to suffer heavy losses despite slowing offensive – ISW
10:13
Scholz calls Trump’s proposal to trade Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid "very selfish"
09:54
Russian overnight attack on Ukraine: UAV debris hits Kyiv high-rise, fires in Cherkasy
09:35
Russia loses 1,270 soldiers, 92 drones, 18 tanks in one day of war in Ukraine
2025, Monday
3 February
22:00
Nearly 63,000 people are missing in Ukraine
More news