Victory Plan or smokescreen?

Russia's plans:

Putin and his cronies are banking on overwhelming Ukraine with brute force: masses of infantry, backed by artillery and air power, all while unleashing a barrage of missile and drone strikes to terrorize the Ukrainian population.

They aim to break through Ukrainian defenses before their own economy collapses.

This is why they refuse to engage in real negotiations — keeping the idea of "talks" alive only to sow discord within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its allies (as nearly happened during the 2022 Istanbul talks).

Counter strategy:

• Maximize arms production and supply to Ukraine, with ongoing aid from allies.
• Tighten sanctions on Russia and its supporters, while plugging loopholes and working to dismantle Russia’s economy (while finding ways to mitigate losses for Ukraine and its partners).
• Preserve democracy and push through reforms to enhance the efficiency of state institutions (using mutual checks, ideally under a Unity Government).
• Ensure Ukraine’s progress towards NATO and EU membership.

These steps will strip Russia of its advantages and strengthen Ukraine’s position.

However, executing these countermeasures demands major shifts in how the government operates.

1. Overcome the society's war fatigue, which inevitably builds during long conflicts (ancient Chinese and Greek philosophers wrote about this more than 2,000 years ago).
2. Clarify the necessity of mobilization.
3. But not with empty slogans — address the very real fears surrounding the war, fueled by Russian propaganda and exacerbated by gaps in military training and defense organization.

Expose the issues, fix the flaws, and keep the public informed.

This calls for an entirely different approach to communication than what the government’s current "TV news marathon + Telegram channels" system can provide.

What’s needed are smart solutions for Ukraine’s resources — from tax collection to distribution, from troop supply to manufacturing, from tackling corruption to picking the right people and the right ideas to tackle these challenges.

But the current government of '5-6 managers' led by Zelenskyy and Yermak isn’t capable of pulling this off — even if they wanted to. The tasks are simply beyond them.

The problem is, they don’t want to change. They see sharing power as a threat, so they stick to imitating activity, keeping up appearances to stay in people’s good graces.

Meanwhile, the public increasingly mentions ideas of "negotiations" or a "diplomatic solution."

To address this, the government hints at some "plan" no one has seen, vaguely referencing a "forum," "roundtable," or, once again, "talks"...

Though these promises are clearly unrealistic, they are trickled out, keeping the public hanging on.

This delays critical decisions, creating a smokescreen — like the hollow "Peace Summit" earlier this year or the "Peace Formula" that no one seems to mention anymore.

But smokescreens, by nature, don’t last. They can’t resolve the issues they’re meant to obscure.

Eventually, real decisions will need to be made.

Tell Zelenskyy and his team that. 

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political technologist, teacher. People's Deputy of Ukraine of the 9th convocation

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.