Three reasons Moscow won't use nuclear weapons, according to political scientist

He said this on Espreso TV.

“The entire strategy of the war unleashed by Putin is based on nuclear blackmail. Let me remind you of Putin's press conference with Macron a few days before the war. This last meeting with Macron was in Moscow, Putin had just arrived from China, he had been pushed to war by Xi Jinping, and he was in a state of euphoria because he was sure that in a few days he would become the ruler of the world, he would take Kyiv. And then he confessed for the first time, said a very revealing phrase: “Yes, we understand that we are inferior to the West, conventionally inferior to NATO, but we have nuclear weapons, Poseidon and other things, so we will use nuclear weapons.” However, he lost the battle for Kyiv, the battle for Hostomel broke his entire strategy. His plan was to take Kyiv, conquer the whole country, and in a week go to the western borders and there, brandishing nuclear weapons, force the West to retreat,” commented Andrey Piontkovsky.

According to him, Putin has declared war not only on Ukraine but also on the West, because he has issued an ultimatum to all NATO countries: take your stuff and go to hell. In his speech on February 24, he explicitly threatened the West: if you dare to defend Ukraine, you will face disasters like you have never seen in your thousand-year history. It was a nuclear blackmail that failed.

“Now Putin is using it again as a last resort. I am still convinced that this will not happen. There are three reasons why Moscow will not use nuclear weapons. The first is that it will not change the nature of war. Suppose it commits a crime and destroys one of the Ukrainian cities. Will the war stop after that? No. The second reason is that he has been told that he will simply be killed in this case. And another important reason is that he doesn't have a nuclear button to push. The use of nuclear weapons is an extremely complex process involving a large number of institutions. First, there is the 12th Directorate of Russia's Ministry of Defense, which has all the nuclear stockpiles. It is monitored by American intelligence, which constantly emphasizes that there are no movements of nuclear weapons, neither tactical nor strategic. Therefore, this is blackmail,” the political scientist emphasized.

“A very big blow to this was dealt by Macron when Putin tried to threaten him. Macron said then: “I will send Mirages and military personnel.” The French military is involved in the fighting in Ukraine, servicing SCALP missiles. Putin began to threaten with nuclear weapons, but Macron answered him very calmly: “Don't forget, France is also a nuclear power.” I repeat that this is absolute blackmail, the last refuge of a scoundrel. Nuclear blackmail no longer works on the West,” Piontkovsky summarized.

• On September 25, Putin proposed to make a number of changes to the basics of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence of the Russian Federation.
• Later, ISW explained that the purpose of these statements was to deter the West and influence further assistance to Ukraine.
• On September 26, the EU assured that Putin's threats about nuclear weapons did not change its position on supporting Ukraine.