Russia's 2024 combat aircraft production: can it make up for losses?

However, by the third year of the war, many oddities have emerged in these processes.

Russia produces combat aircraft such as the Su-57, Su-35, Su-34, and Yak-130 trainers. The Su-30 and MiG-29 mainly undergo repairs and upgrades, while the MiG-35 project is considered defunct due to competition from Sukhoi.

Despite these challenges, Russia's defense industry continues to operate and produce aircraft. Previously, I detailed annual deliveries of Russian aircraft, especially during the full-scale war.

In 2022, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 29 new and modernized aircraft:

• Su-57: 6;
• Su-35: 7;
• Su-34: 10;
• Su-30SM: 4;
• Yak-130: 2.

In 2023, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 26 new aircraft:

• Su-57: 2 (despite claims of 8);
• Su-35: 10;
• Su-34: 6;
• Su-30SM: 4;
• Yak-130: 4.

Thus, around 30 combat and trainer aircraft were delivered annually during the war.

In the first half of 2024, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 10 new aircraft:

• Su-34: 4 (two batches of two, delivered in April and June);
• Su-35: 4 (two batches, delivered in April and May);
• Yak-130: 2 (delivered in June).

Notably, no Su-30SM or Su-57 were delivered in the first half of 2024. The concealment of aircraft numbers complicates tracking new deliveries and suggests attempts to fake regularity.

The second half of 2024 might see two to three more batches of Su-34 and Su-35 (each batch with two aircraft), totaling 8-10 of each type. Additionally, another batch of Yak-130s (two units) is expected, bringing the annual total to four.

No Su-30SMs in the first half might be due to reliance on Western equipment for modernization. Up to four Su-57s might be delivered by year-end.

In total, the Russian Aerospace may receive 22-28 new aircraft in 2024, but these numbers are tentative due to possible manipulations with serial numbers and actual deliveries.

In conclusion, Russia's small-scale aircraft production cannot compensate for losses in the war with Ukraine. The defense industry hasn't ramped up production or diversified its aircraft types. While difficult for Ukraine to target, these aircraft are easier to disable than replace, especially types like the Su-25 and Su-24, which are no longer in production.

Source

About the author: Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political observer with the Information Resistance group.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.