Russian forces expand right-bank Oskil control near Kupyansk

 Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed the situation in Kupyansk sector, Kharkiv region.

Initially, this occurred south of Novomlynsk, and by November 30, the zone had expanded south of Dvorichna.

To support this attempt to extend control on the right bank, units of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) were deployed. By December 3, Russian forces were pushed out near Novomlynsk. However, near Dvorichna, the occupiers managed to further expand their control. Currently, the zone stretches from Dvorichna to Zakhidne, with an apparent aim to secure physical control over the R-79 highway, which is currently under Ukrainian fire along this section.

The total area of territory captured on the right bank of the Oskil River between November 23, 2024, and January 15, 2025, is approximately 8 km².

The expansion has been notably slow, at around 100–150 m² per day, and accompanied by significant losses for the 69th MRD. Moreover, due to the terrain and landscape challenges in this area, even if Russian forces reach the R-79 highway, their progress would likely lead to further complications rather than speeding up operations.

Expanding the zone requires additional resources, and reinforcing the right-bank Russian grouping across the Oskil remains a logistical nightmare. Although advancing along the R-79 highway towards Kupyansk via Kondrashivka might seem viable on paper, the nearly 16 km stretch is largely exposed and under Ukrainian fire. This poses severe risks for the infantry units of the 69th MRD, which lack sufficient armored support. Consequently, such advances often add to the growing casualty statistics.

Direct movement is fraught with high losses once Russian troops leave the cover provided by the Varnianske and Parnyanske forested areas.

Thus, while Russian forces have managed to secure a foothold on the right bank of the Oskil, it seems unlikely they can accumulate sufficient resources there to threaten right-bank Kupyansk. Furthermore, the example of Novomlynsk demonstrates that neutralizing Russian bridgeheads on the Oskil’s right bank is a matter of time.

This situation is reminiscent of the northern Kharkiv region, including Vovchansk and Lyptsi. Previous analysis of why this northern "metastasis" persists angered many due to its conclusions, which some found unacceptable. Specifically, the northern grouping ties down the cumbersome Belgorod-based Russian forces, depleting them through losses and forcing command to allocate reserves and new resources not only to other fronts but also to this area, which has yielded no results since May 2024.

This has resulted in nine months of pointless presence in the sector, with consistent losses in manpower and equipment, while neither advancing nor retreating. In some ways, the right-bank bridgehead near Dvorichna resembles this scenario. However, for the 69th MRD, it’s not the Russian border behind them but the river.