Putin’s strategy from blitzkrieg to long war – Portnykov on the Kremlin’s long-term plans

He discussed this during a broadcast on Espreso TV.

"Just as Hitler once created Vichy France for Pétain, Putin intended to establish a puppet Ukraine under Yanukovych. But now that the blitzkrieg has failed spectacularly, Russia seems to believe that victory can still be achieved — just through a prolonged war. What couldn’t be done in three days might be done in three weeks. What can’t be won in three months may take three years. And after three years, if they still haven’t succeeded, what’s to stop them from deciding that maybe it’ll take 13 years? That’s a perfectly plausible scenario. Or maybe they’ll just settle for whatever they’ve managed to grab so far and try to hold onto that. This is the logic of the moment," Portnykov stated.

According to him, Russia will seek negotiations only when they are truly at their limit.

"Why are we surprised by their progress? It’s like we keep expecting them to want to stop, to negotiate, to be exhausted. But they'll only be interested in talking when they’re really worn out. That’s a possibility. But again, I don’t know when that will happen. I’ve already outlined the conditions for the war’s end. It’ll be when they can’t advance any further, when they’re hemorrhaging money with nothing to show for it. These are the three key factors. Everything else — all these international forums and grand statements — mean absolutely nothing," he explained.

Ukraine, however, can work diplomatically in the meantime, Portnykov believes.

"Look, we held a Peace Summit, and it’s an important tool for rallying international support. But does it have anything to do with ending the war? Not at all. China could host its own ‘Summit of Friends of Peace’ tomorrow just to siphon off international backing from Zelenskyy, to shift it toward Russia instead. And how many nations will turn up at that alternative summit, where Zelenskyy isn't in charge? Will Ukraine even want to attend? But none of it has any real connection to the war. It’s just political theater. A distraction. They’ll gather in the mountains of Switzerland or in China, discussing serious issues they have no power to solve. Because in war, it's not diplomats but generals who hold the cards. Soldiers decide the fate of nations. Presidents can either order them to keep fighting or declare an end. Only when a president chooses peace does the initiative move from the military to the politicians. Zelenskyy can fly around the world, meeting presidents, asking for help, but ultimately, everything depends on the Ukrainian army. Where force rules, politics and diplomacy are powerless," he concluded.

• Meanwhile, Russian opposition figure Mark Feigin suggested that Putin might have been more flexible with his Ukraine strategy, if not for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Kursk operation on Russian soil.