ISW analyzes impact of Ukraine's strikes on Russian ammunition depots on frontline dynamics

The Institute for the Study of War writes about this. 

American analysts point out that in September, the Ukrainian Defense Forces struck ammunition depots in the Tver region and Krasnodar Krai, and also hit a missile storage facility in the Bryansk region on October 8, which led to the destruction of a significant number of shells, missiles, and drones.

“While the impact of a single strike is unlikely to significantly impact Russia's war effort, repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia may force a decision point on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia‘s rear areas to mitigate the impact,” ISW noted. 

They emphasized that the timely lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range capabilities could allow for more effective use of Russia's vulnerabilities before it takes countermeasures. 

“Ukrainian strikes against facilities within Russia could impact offensive operations throughout the theater in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces have the materiel, capabilities, and permission to conduct such a strike campaign against logistics and support facilities within Russia at scale,” the Institute for War Studies concluded. 

What is known about the permission of long-range strikes against Russia

On August 31, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov presented a list of targets in Russia that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could strike with American long-range weapons if they had the opportunity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also appealed to a number of Western countries to authorize long-range strikes against Russia.

On September 3, it was reported that the United States was close to an agreement to provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles to strike deep into Russia and could announce this decision this fall.

However, on September 6, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said that the United States would not authorize Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russia, as this would not mean a “turning point in the course of events.”

On September 19, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that Washington was discussing with its allies the possibility of allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory.

On September 24, The Washington Post reported that the United States “has not heard a convincing argument” from Ukrainian leaders to allow Kyiv to use Western weapons to strike targets in Russia.