Is Ukraine's pullback from Russia's Kursk region inevitable? Expert explains

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko addressed rumors about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ potential withdrawal from the Kursk region. 

According to him, "As of now, in the third month of the Kursk operation, the Ukrainian army continues to tie down significant Russian forces in the area."

He explained that on August 6, Russian troops in the region numbered around 10,000, but this has since grown to over 40,000. Throughout the operation, the Ukrainian General Staff estimates Russian forces have faced around 21,000 casualties, including those killed, wounded, or captured. Despite these losses, reinforcements have maintained and even increased Russia's presence to around 50,000 troops, alongside the initial contingent.

Despite a Russian counteroffensive beginning on September 10, the results have been limited. “On September 10, the Ukrainian troops controlled approximately 1,250 square kilometers in the region; now, it’s around 950 square kilometers. That can hardly be called a phenomenally successful counteroffensive.”

In an effort to strengthen forces, Russia has reportedly been moving North Korean soldiers to the Kursk region, with around 12,000 expected to be deployed here, possibly pushing the total Russian force beyond 50,000. This buildup was anticipated, with estimates placing such an increase around late October or early November.

Nevertheless, Ukraine still holds over 75% of the original territory, including key logistical points and the district center. Russian forces have yet to establish a stable frontline, with gray zones stretching several kilometers in some areas. The Russian contingent remains tied down, forced to operate in mobile warfare conditions that limit their maneuverability. If freed, these forces could potentially be redeployed to more advantageous fronts, such as Pokrovsk or Kramatorsk.

Given these conditions, the question arises: does it make sense for the Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the Kursk region now? Perhaps, but only if control becomes critically unfavorable. An exit plan has been in consideration by the Ukrainian General Staff since August, as part of strategic planning.

While an exit strategy has always been available, it's unclear why it has become a focal point now, especially given the lack of a critical threat to the Ukrainian position in the Kursk region.