Battle for Trump

For Russia, the most important thing is to achieve successes that should eloquently confirm that they cannot be defeated. To this end, I expect them to launch operations along the entire front, from Kursk to Kherson. Most of them will be diversionary, but this activity should simulate the significant scale and capabilities of the Russian forces to continue until complete victory.

Ukraine will also counterattack to show that we will not lose the war. Both their and our counterattacks will be very bloody, but neither side will achieve significant successes. The Russian army will continue to capture village after village, while we will push them back in some places and retreat in others. The Russians' task is to begin the battles for Pokrovsk and reach the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

“Overall, we entered 2025 fairly steadily. Despite the flood of negative news, Biden's recent decisions sent us a lot of weapons and supplies. There are still chances for F-16 flights this year, as well as for our missiles to reach Russia, but I don't think this will significantly change the course of the war.”

Western financial and economic assistance allows Ukraine to go through the first half of the year without any major issues. This is crucial, as it reduces the possibility of Trump exerting undue pressure on us and, accordingly, gives us time to shape a better agenda.

The start of the year will also be marked by serious diplomatic efforts from Ukraine. We need to strengthen the European coalition in our support, again to have leverage over Trump. Thanks to his blunders about Greenland and Canada, this will be relatively easy, as European leaders are already uniting to find solutions for a Trump presidency. Therefore, formats like Ramstein meetings and various summits will take place with the goal of supporting Ukraine. And we will have that support.

We should expect an intensification of the Russian coalition's activities. Orban and Erdogan will likely renew their "peacekeeping" efforts, and considering that the former has personal ties to Trump, this could create certain risks for Ukraine. Erdogan's role will grow in light of his actions in Syria. Clearly, China will also become more active, possibly with other BRICS partners. The essence of their efforts will be to stop the war along the front line, but only after Putin regains the Kursk region.

In short, active diplomacy will be accompanied by no less active military operations. 

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.