Kursk operation exposes Russia's struggle with humanitarian crisis

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko provides a detailed analysis of the Kursk operation, which began on August 6, 2024. 

Kovalenko states that at the outset of the operation, there were approximately 11,000 Russian military personnel, mostly conscripts, in the Kursk region. The peak value of Ukraine’s control zone in the region reached 1,300 km².

Currently, around 60,000 Russian soldiers are concentrated in the Kursk region. Over the past six months, losses have amounted to 38,000 personnel, including those killed, wounded, and captured. Kovalenko points out that the total concentration of Russian forces has increased to nearly 100,000, which is a significant rise from the initial grouping, almost a 90,000-strong increase.

The author notes that the forces concentrated in the region are comparable to an entire army and several divisions, but the results have been only partially effective. While Russian forces have regained control of about 670 km², the total area under Ukraine’s control, either fully or partially (gray zone), amounts to about 630 km². Kovalenko highlights the cost of this limited progress: 38,000 Russian soldiers lost, at a rate of 57 personnel per km².

Kovalenko further asserts that the Russian military forces, which could have been deployed in other critical areas like Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, or Orikhiv, were instead bogged down in the Kursk region. This diverted focus and wasted resources significantly weakened Russia’s overall combat effectiveness and damaged the reputation of Putin's regime.

Kursk fighting sparks humanitarian crisis for Russia

In addition to the military impact, Kovalenko emphasizes the growing humanitarian crisis in Kursk. Around 150,000 people fled the fighting in the region, with 30,000 placed in temporary accommodation centers, which later became permanent housing. The remainder either found shelter with relatives or settled independently. Kovalenko argues that Putin's regime is struggling to manage this crisis, with citizens receiving delayed and inadequate aid, and widespread unemployment exacerbating the situation. Kursk regional authorities, especially Deputy Governor Alexander Khinshtein, are getting criticized for their inability to address these challenges, becoming a symbol of the country's leadership's indifference.

Kovalenko points out that the ongoing humanitarian struggles have even led to public protests.

“In the sixth month of the Kursk operation, the ongoing humanitarian crisis is compelling Russians to do something they would typically never dare to do — take to the streets in protests and demand action from the authorities, sometimes in raised tones.”

Reflecting on the overall situation, Kovalenko argues that the Kursk operation has exposed Russia's weaknesses in securing its borders, maintaining effective military operations on its own territory, and handling unforeseen humanitarian challenges. These failures have contributed to growing public discontent.

Kovalenko concludes that the Kursk operation has had a profound effect, not only on Russian troops but also on internal processes within Russia. He asserts that this operation clearly demonstrates the need for continued actions of this nature, suggesting that the operation must be repeated in the future.