Each strike on Russian refineries and oil depots brings war closer to end

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are systematically destroying oil depots in several regions of Russia. After reports of strikes on oil depots in the Rostov region, where significant fires broke out, another report emerged of an oil depot burning in the Kirov region of Russia, which is 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border. This clearly demonstrates that Ukrainian drones can cover great distances and hit their targets. The destruction of Russian oil depots can be seen as a response to the new attacks by Russian armed forces on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

In recent months, Russia has already lost a significant portion of its oil refining capacity. Despite various protective measures, Russian oil depots have not seen any positive results for Russia. Although the governors of both the Rostov and Kirov regions claim all drones have been destroyed, video footage of fires at Russian oil depots suggests otherwise. Along with the Ukrainian Armed Forces' raid on the Kursk region, this all points to the war shifting into Russian territory.

Of course, the scale of Ukrainian military actions on Russian territory is still not comparable to those carried out by the Russian army in Ukraine. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 27% of Ukraine's sovereign territory is currently under Russian control. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold only a small area in Russia's Kursk region. Recently, there was also an attempt to break through into Russia's Belgorod region. This gives hope that the territory under Ukrainian military control in Russia will expand as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues.

Russia is trying to do everything it can to destroy Ukraine's energy sector, and it is achieving obvious results. But Ukraine is also doing a lot to reduce Russia's oil refining capabilities. It is known that Russia's economy, especially after the introduction of serious Western sanctions, is based on oil. Without revenues from the oil and gas sector, Vladimir Putin will not be able to continue his war against Ukraine. The Russian leader and his inner circle will have to think about, if not stop, then suspend this war in the coming years.

Each strike on Russian refineries and oil depots brings us closer to the end of the war. Even though the Kremlin denies any willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, and after the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance in the Kursk region, they have entirely ruled out the possibility of any diplomatic steps that could lead to agreements between Moscow and Kyiv.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the key to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war lies in shifting the conflict onto Russian territory. This way, the war stops being just a so-called "special military operation" for us and becomes a tangible threat to Putin and his compatriots. It is no longer just the destruction of Ukraine's sovereign territory, including both the areas under legitimate Ukrainian control and those occupied and annexed by Russia.

Shifting the war on Russian territory transforms the conflict into a real war for them. Putin is clearly doing everything he can to prevent his compatriots from realizing that this brutal war has arrived at their doorsteps and is set to stay for the foreseeable future. Even after the Ukrainian military's advance into the Kursk region and the establishment of control there, Moscow has decided to declare a counterterrorism operation in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. This is being framed as routine measures for internal stability rather than a war with another country's army.

Russians continually try to downplay the impact of strikes on oil refineries and depots. Regional governors frequently assert that Ukraine has failed to achieve its objectives and that all drones targeting Russia's energy facilities were destroyed in flight. However, videos from the scenes tell a completely different story.

With each Ukrainian drone raid, the capabilities of Russian oil depots and refineries diminish, leading to reduced budget revenues for Russia and, consequently, diminished capabilities for the Russian armed forces, which also rely on products from these refineries and depots. This underscores that the war, both through the destruction of infrastructure and control over Russian territory, has become an unrelenting reality for the Russians.

Thus, no amount of denials by Russian officials can undo this reality. Before our own eyes, Russian oil depots continue to burn, and the Russian budget and the Russian military continue to lose.

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, Shevchenko National Prize winner

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.