Elections in US and war in Ukraine

2024, as the US election year, may change the leading figures' positions on the global geopolitical chessboard. It is crucial to recognize and consider this factor when formulating plans for the future. Some in the Western press have been saying that the world is tired of the war in Ukraine. But how can you get tired without having fought in it for a single minute, and at the same time blame the Ukrainians for how expensive this war is for them?

The question is, if the United States is unable to help Ukraine to the extent that it has been helping before, will the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and our other allies in Europe be able to compensate for this assistance for a long time? Moreover, there is no British, German, or French responsibility for the European fate, but rather a common European responsibility.

The costs for all the European states will be much higher if Putin takes his war to the European Union. The Russian dictator made it clear that he plans to do so when he recently called for the Russians living in Latvia to be protected from alleged "brutal repression" by being forced to learn the official language of the country in which they live. Similar calls preceded Moscow's war in the Ukrainian Donbas.

Putin must be stopped in Ukraine. And if this is "too expensive" for Europeans, then if the dictator is allowed to seize new Ukrainian territories, it will cost them ten times more in the future.

It should also be borne in mind that, along with the desire to destroy Ukraine's statehood, the Kremlin has another goal in this aggressive war - to change the global security architecture for totalitarian states. And in this case, no one will be able to sit behind the NATO fence. Russia's imperialist war of aggression in the twenty-first century must not succeed.

For more than 70 years, Europe has been protected by America's nuclear umbrella. After the US elections next year, this protection may be reduced or even eliminated. We need to prepare for such a change now, not when it suddenly happens.

Therefore, Europeans should now develop a coherent vision for ensuring European security and providing assistance to Ukraine. Joint effective action against Russia can be a step towards such a future. When the EU is ready to spend much more money and produce much more military equipment to help Ukrainians. Only then can we expect real positive changes in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

It should be acknowledged that the long-term peace in Europe has contributed to the emergence of entire generations during these decades of peace that always demand sacrifices from others, while they themselves prefer to hide behind the backs of those who are on the front lines of the battle between good and evil.

Their inactivity and meekness requires more and more sacrifices so that they can remain in a comfortable and peaceful state. However, Russia's war in Ukraine will not give these cunning people a chance to enter a future that will be no different from their previous measured and well-fed European existence. It will never be the same again. The world is changing dramatically, and the world order that will emerge after the Russian-Ukrainian war is over will change with it.

Long-term support for Ukraine is the only sensible way to protect European democracy, freedoms, and a united Europe's economy. Russia's defeat will show Putin and other totalitarian rulers that aggressive wars that violate international law have no chance of winning.

We can only hope that Western civilization is shrewd and strong enough to prevent those who ignore the norms and laws that existed after the end of World War II from gaining the upper hand.

And that neither America or Europe will allow Russia and its satellites to harm their economies, which depend on stable markets and transportation routes around the world. Just remember that after the start of Russia's major invasion on February 24, 2022, oil prices skyrocketed and many products, such as flour, temporarily became almost unavailable in some countries.

However, in such difficult times, totalitarian regimes like Russia's have the advantage of being able to make urgent decisions quickly. And in the case of the United States, with its requirement for multi-stage approvals and the necessity to reach cross-party agreements, it has resulted in Republicans in Congress successfully blocking military aid to Ukraine for several months, which was urgently required. It is undeniable that when there is a war for the world's future civilization, effective mechanisms for making quick, pragmatic and long-term decisions must be developed.

The war in Ukraine is not only a Ukrainian war, it is a European war. We need Europeans to finally realize this. Tearing Ukraine out of the Russian sphere of influence is not only in line with the United States' strategic goals, but also with the European Union's. This is a serious challenge for the entire Europe, and the fate of the whole European continent depends on its outcome.

In 2024/2025, the Ukrainian, European, and global democracy's fate may be decided by the Russian-Ukrainian war, the outcome of the US presidential election, and whether Putin will retain his power, given the help of China, Iran, and North Korea.

A united Europe has no choice but to support Ukraine. Moscow has made it clear that it wants to restore the old Soviet borders, which inevitably meant expanding its influence in Eastern Europe. Obviously, this could lead to the European Union's destruction.

Every euro that is used to support Ukraine is money well invested for the European Union, which will prevent Russia from realizing its plans for Ukraine and Europe. Without NATO and America, the EU would be defenseless against Russian aggression, and there is no doubt that Russia would immediately take advantage of this. But until the EU countries build up their military capabilities to such a significant level as to create a counterweight to the Russian Federation, Moscow will never perceive the EU as an equal partner in negotiations.

After all, if you follow Putin's rhetoric closely, Ukraine is not the final target, and his further aggression includes the Baltic states, among others. The latter will affect Europeans directly. And depending on the US election results, this will mean the need to rapidly increase armaments in Europe in order to deter Russian aggression.

Any attempts by the Russian dictator to wrap up the situation through intermediaries with deceptive initiatives that he is open to a hostilities ceasefire should not be taken seriously. We cannot give him a break.  The struggle against the totalitarian regime in the Kremlin must be carried on until it is overthrown. Because no matter what Putin says, his words are not trustworthy. He follows the same pattern everywhere. Anyone who hasn't forgotten Moscow's criminal actions in the war in Syria should remember that Russia uses ceasefires to secure the weapons and ammunition supply and then continues to fire at will.

It is now important for Ukraine to return all of its territories that the Russian Federation has occupied since 2014. However, the Kremlin would consider this a defeat that would jeopardize Putin's rule. And as long as he holds the presidency, Putin's regime will use all possible options to prevent Ukrainians from returning Crimea.

Everything is now developing in such a way that the Russian Federation can only give up Ukraine's occupation through exhaustion - a military collapse or an internal political revolution. There are simply no other options.

Russia is now on the precipice. Putin's failed rule has created a failed society. The total evil and lie cult can no longer help them. The mass media's propaganda is unable to cover the current government's failures, and representatives of the predatory ruling St. Petersburg castes are beginning to think about how to keep at least some of their estates abroad, their exported funds and other valuables.

Only by getting rid of Putin in a radical way, and here the former Romanian tyrant Nicolae Ceausescu can serve as an example, will the Russian political and military establishment be able to think about how to come to an agreement with Europe and the joint West.

Putin is the brake that stands in the way of ending the war and launching the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels need to proceed from this.

In 2024, Ukraine's allies and partners in the West must think about how to supply Ukrainians with more effective weapons: long-range missiles for F-16 fighter jets, more tanks, and even more Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. Ukraine must win, and only by working together can we accelerate this long-awaited victory.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.