Russia hopes to use China to entrap Ukraine, achieve goals with fewer losses – Portnikov

He said this during the Espreso TV.

"When we talk about any mediation efforts, we have to take into account not so much the position of the mediators as the position of the parties, because any mediator, the United States, the European Union, the People's Republic of China, Brazil, can always rely only on the position of the parties," he said.

Portnikov added that, to a large extent, the EU tried to do the same thing in 2014-2022 that China is trying to do now.

"That is, guarantees of Ukraine's territorial integrity with a postponed status of Crimea, I'm talking about the period of 14-22 years, and with concessions that could satisfy the political leadership of the Russian Federation in the form of some special status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions within Ukraine," he said. 

Portnikov also added that it is worth paying attention to what Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when commenting on the Chinese-Ukrainian talks.

"He said that he hoped that China's position would help Russia achieve the goals of the special operation, and that it would be better if it was through negotiations. In other words, it would be better if Ukraine surrendered on its own, rather than having to be persuaded for years. This is the Russian position... And this Russian position may not be understood by Xi Jinping. What Xi Jinping might consider as an acceptable result of his mediation is Ukraine's giving up the territories that have already been captured by Russia," he added.

The journalist also noted that "Russia would like Chinese diplomatic efforts to allow the Ukrainian political leadership to be trapped in a certain way."

"Since now it is impossible to use Dmytro Kozak, who was such a participant in the "special operation" at the first stage, who tried to lure the Ukrainian leadership into the trap of direct negotiations with Donbas, etc. So now, let Li Hui play this role, he will be a Chinese Kozak. And if they manage to stop the Ukrainian offensive, sow some distrust between Ukraine and its Western allies, and if they manage to stall for time so that Russia can produce as many missiles as possible for new massive strikes, and mobilise new troops to occupy new Ukrainian territories, then it will be considered that the Chinese role has been fulfilled. And in this situation, the goals of the "special operation", which are to eliminate Ukrainian statehood, will be achieved with fewer losses than they could have been achieved without Chinese participation. Because if we agree that now the real plan of the "special operation" is the integration of Ukrainian lands into the Russian Federation by 2030, then Putin has another 7 years to complete the task," Portnikov said.

• On April 26, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with Xi Jinping, and the Chinese leader announced that a special representative of the Chinese government will arrive in Ukraine. 

• On April 30, Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk said that China is interested in ending Russia's war against Ukraine because it violates the world order.