Putin's bet on protracted war is mistake, Ukraine has more trump cards – Dmitry Oreshkin

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"It seems to me that Putin thinks that in a long war of attrition, he has more chances than Ukraine. Putin thinks that Russia has oil, gas, gold and silver, diamonds, wood, aluminum, steel, etc. But I think this is the same mistake on Putin's part as the one he made when he attacked Ukraine. He miscalculated. He also had on his desk the figures on the battle readiness of Ukraine and the Russian armed forces, i.e. we have ten times more airplanes than Ukraine, seven times more tanks, four times more soldiers, etc. And the result was exactly the opposite of what Putin imagined in his head. I think he will miscalculate in the long run as well," the Russian publicist said.

Dmitry Oreshkin noted that the manufacture of weapons is as fake as the construction of communism. 

"We have seen how the prestige of Russia's military industry has collapsed over the past year. We can also see how Western weapons are being purchased by all countries of the world at a tremendous rate, and how the traditional markets for Russian weapons and energy are shrinking before our eyes. Few people talk about this, but it is happening. Moreover, Russia's production capacity, for example, of tanks is much more modest than it seems. The main tank manufacturer is Uralvagonzavod, which produces no more than two or three dozen tanks a month, while Ukrainians destroy about a hundred tanks a month,” he said.

"Secondly, it is clear that Russia has a much larger human resource. But this is a modern war, which requires highly qualified people who are able to make decisions and use modern weapons. These resources in Russia are not as great as it may seem. On top of that, Russia spends resources, while Ukraine accumulates them,” Oreshkin pointed out. 

He underscored that although Ukraine is not given the latest weapons, they are still more effective than Russian ones. Therefore, in the long run, it is more likely that Ukraine is accumulating the potential for a retaliatory strike than that Putin is accumulating the potential for further expansion. 

“The war has been going on for over a year and Putin's plans are shrinking: first, he was talking about capturing Kyiv, then he was going to pave the way to Transnistria by land and put pressure on Moldova, and the third stage was just to reach the administrative boundaries of Donetsk region, and now this is also off the agenda. And more and more people are saying that it's time to start making peace. Lavrov, Prigozhin, and Zakharova are already talking about this in order to put a full stop to this story and get out of it with a triumphant expression on their faces. All that remains is to reach an agreement with Ukraine, and the cards are now such that the Ukrainian side holds more trump cards," the scientist said.

• On April 12, Belarus called for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the start of negotiations.

• On April 18, the Kremlin unveiled the key point of the "peace plan" for Russia to end the war against Ukraine.