Putin will not replace Shoigu and Gerasimov, so that it does not look like concessions to Prigozhin's demands — ISW

This is stated in the ISW report.

"The Kremlin is likely attempting to signal that Shoigu will maintain his position for now and that Putin will not give into Prigozhin’s blackmail attempt," analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, it is claimed that on June 26, Shoigu, the Defense Minister of Russia, visited an undisclosed command post of Russian troops in Ukraine. This appearance marked his first public appearance since Prigozhin's rebellion in Rostov-on-Don and the subsequent march to Moscow.

Previously, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine's Kharkiv and Luhansk regions along the Kupiansk-Svatove line. It was reported that Shoigu met with the commander of these troops, Colonel-General Yevgeny Nikiforov, and instructed them to prevent the advancement of Ukrainian forces.

ISW analysts highlight that Shoigu did not visit the headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces in Rostov-on-Don following the end of Wagner's occupation of the city. Additionally, he did not have any direct contact with the Russian Armed Forces in southern Ukraine after the conclusion of the armed uprising.

"It is currently unclear if the Kremlin will replace Shoigu and Gerasimov, but it is unlikely that the Kremlin would make such drastic command changes immediately since doing so would seem to be conceding to Prigozhin’s demands," ISW notes.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

For several months, there has been a conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of Wagner PMC, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the situation escalated quickly on the evening of June 23.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

On Saturday, June 24, in addition to Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the Wagner group also took control of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Lukashenko published a statement indicating that the head of the PMC Wagner was willing to halt the movement of the military columns and negotiate with the Kremlin. Allegedly, Prigozhin agreed to this during a conversation with Lukashenko. 

Instead, Prigozhin announced that the Wagner group had stopped their advance and returned to their field camps before reaching 200 km from Moscow. He stated, "In a day, we traveled without reaching 200 km to Moscow. During this time, no blood was shed. However, the moment may come when blood will be spilled. Therefore, taking full responsibility, we are turning our columns around and heading back to the field camps as planned."

Later, Prigozhin and his fighters left the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Russia. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be allowed to go to Belarus, and Russia would drop the criminal charges against him.

The Institute for the Study of War predicts that an agreement facilitated by Lukashenko is likely to dissolve Wagner PMC, led by Prigozhin, in its current form. However, some parts of the organization may continue to exist under the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Russian media reported on June 26 that Wagner PMC leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is still being investigated for his alleged involvement in organizing a rebellion in Russia. Despite the Kremlin's statement that the case is closed, the investigation is ongoing.

The Belarusian president's administration did not confirm the arrival of Wagner PMC founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in the country. However, on June 27, the Belaruski Gayun monitoring group reported that Prigozhin's plane landed at a military airfield in Machulishchy.