Putin has nothing to say to Russian elite and Russian society

Peskov said that Putin would not give a final press conference. For the first time in 10 years.

What does this say?

Putin has nothing to say to Russian elite and Russian society. Putin's press conference has long ceased to contain even a shadow of complex questions, but he cannot answer even the simplest ones. For example, what is his plan?  What is the purpose of war ("special military operation")? When will it all end? He tried to sell to the elite "Russia as a fortress under siege", which is on the path of "Stalinist modernization", import substitution and "cold war with the West". But Russia is fighting too shamefully, and its economy is declining too quickly (yes, that quickly) for anyone to believe in "modernization project."  Putin's initial communication model has failed. And its legitimacy is at great risk.

Putin rightly fears three things.

1. The fact that any publicity on the subject of failures destroys dictator's political capital. All of Putin's speeches in the last two months have nothing to do with the reality of war. He never once commented on the defeat near Kherson, in the Kharkiv region, near Lyman, mobilization - only in the presence of "pocket" "mothers". Only attacks on Ukrainian energy industry, which he called "retribution". And the statement that "everything is going according to plan" is detached from reality. Format of the press conference, in order not to just work, requires having at least a minimal connection with reality.

2. Growing dissatisfaction with him personally. So far, Shoigu, Gerasimov, bad generals and corrupt people in the army are taking charge of dissatisfaction. Sometimes Lavrov, who led Russia to isolation as a bad diplomat, takes a hit on himself. The boyars who hide truth from the tsar are to blame. This is visible even in the very limited Russian sociology. Confidence in Shoigu, Ministry of Defense, and the army is falling very quickly. A little slower - to Lavrov.  Towards Putin - slowly. But these trends can no longer be hidden.

3. Consequence of the first two fears is the formation of a request for a change of power.  And at once from two sides:

 • From his own entourage of oligarchs and security forces. Which at a certain moment can go from the state of "I fear Putin more than sanctions and The Hague" to the state of "I fear The Hague, sanctions and Ukrainians more than Putin".

• On the part of radical plebs and conditional "Girkin".T hose who will shoot traitor generals and corrupt people, introduce war communism and look for enemies in the elite. In case of real fanatics in power, Putin and his entourage will die quite quickly. And they know it. (By the way, such fanatical dictatorship will shake Russia much faster than Putin's regime, but there will be more risks).

Putin cannot disappear from public communication altogether. Therefore, the further, the more Putin's statements and in general his communications will be detached from reality. He will talk more and more about "transformers". More and more parallel reality. And all this will further and further realize his fears. Because he is in his own trap. He will lose legitimacy among elite and plebs, he will become the main culprit of failures. Not war, because war is not a crime for Russians. Namely failure, poverty and humiliation.

Any dictator is one who rides on the back of a tiger. The tiger is the elite who consider it a guarantor of legitimacy. Tiger is a mob driven to madness. And as soon as dictator loses the aura of irreplaceability and absolute legitimacy, a very sad (for him) end awaits him. It is waiting for Putin.

P.S. And one more thing. Information that Putin needs urgent operation and therefore there will be no press conference is typical throw-in. It is not worth attention.

Russians, through secondary yellow press, create parallel topic to distract from the main event. And once again raise stupid discussion of invented or real "Putin's diseases". He is afraid. This is the main thing.

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in the field of business, public administration and politics

The editors do not always share opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.