What has Russia lost with fall of Assad regime in Syria?

So let's go through the points of what Russia has lost along with Assad.

Let's start with the possible benefits. Can Russian forces from Syria strengthen the invading army in Ukraine?

"No, these forces cannot significantly affect the course of the war in Ukraine. Most of the Russian troops in Syria are specialists in aviation, air defence and engineering units, which are poorly adapted to the needs of the frontline here."

And there are certain problems with the evacuation of equipment there. And yes, it was the leakage of forces and resources from Syria to Ukraine that was one of the reasons for Assad's rapid collapse.

And now about the losses.

Loss of role in the Middle East. Russia has largely lost its status as a significant player, as Syria was its key ally in the region. Without the Assad regime, it will be difficult for Russia to influence key countries in the region (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel).

"Russia has also lost its role as a counterweight to the United States in the region, which strengthens the position of Washington and its allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE)."

The loss of strategic military bases (this has not yet happened, but is very likely to happen soon) in Tartus and Hmeymim is the loss of a logistics hub for creating a Russian presence in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa. Almost all operations in Africa were serviced through Syrian hubs. Now Russia has definitely lost the ability to respond quickly to conflicts in the region.

Economic losses. Russia has invested billions of dollars in supporting Assad, hoping for long-term economic benefits.

• Fertilisers. Russian companies have been mining phosphates in Syria. There is one of the largest deposits in the world, and phosphates are an important element of global food security.
• Oil. The Stroytransgaz company (controlled by Gennady Timchenko) has been granted the rights to develop key oil and gas fields in Syria. 
• Logistics. In 2019, Russia signed a 49-year lease agreement for the Tartus seaport. This port was planned to be used as a logistics centre for trade, transportation of resources and military operations.
• The collapse of regional drug trafficking. Syria was a centre for the production of phenethylene, also known as Captagon, a synthetic substance that was then transported to Europe and the Middle East. Russia was a ‘shareholder’ in this flow. Now this source of cash for Russia will be blocked.

The growing influence of Erdogan and the weakening of Iran's role will also hit the energy and political ambitions of Tehran and Moscow. Iran has lost a key partner, which reduces its influence in the Middle East. Iranian forces have already been effectively evacuated from the country, and the Tehran government is negotiating with the Sunnis of Syria on the security of Shiites, which is the maximum of its capabilities. Erdogan will now control almost all Black Sea and Mediterranean oil and gas routes.

Europe will be able to breathe freely. Russia has lost its tool of blackmailing the EU by controlling the traffic of people and energy resources. The Russian Federation planned to use Syria to transport oil and gas to the Mediterranean Sea, which could provide access to European markets. In addition, the instrument of pressure on Europe by provoking migration crises has also disappeared.

"All of this is a sign of the decline in Russia's global influence. The fall of Assad has discredited Russia as a reliable partner for other dictatorships. The collapse of the regime in a few weeks showed that Moscow is unable to effectively maintain its assets."

The collapse of the Syrian project continued to destroy the myth of Russia's ‘invincibility’ and demonstrates the limited global influence it has.

Syria has been an important lever for Russia in its negotiations with the West, including on the Ukrainian issue. And no matter what the Russian methodologists and Trump say, all that has happened is a record of Russia's real capabilities, which have fallen significantly over the years. And no ‘truce’ in Ukraine, even if it happens, will save the Putin regime.

Source

About the author. Yurii Bohdanov, publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.