Espreso. Global

As soon as Ukraine runs out of resources, war will spread globally

21 June, 2024 Friday

For the past two years, the West has been desperately trying to avoid World War III


It limits the use of its weapons to strike Russia. It does not even try to shoot down missiles flying over its territory. The idea of sending instructors to Ukrainian training grounds scares it. Time and again, it repeats the need to "avoid escalation."

It wants to keep the war limited to just Russia and Ukraine, keeping it under control geographically. The West is trying hard to stick to its usual ways of doing things, seeing our war as the main problem.

It's a good effort, but it probably won't work.

History doesn't repeat itself; it only rhymes. But if we look for a relevant analogy in twentieth-century history for Ukraine, it would be pre-war Czechoslovakia. The difference is, unlike then, Ukraine isn't alone; it's receiving support with money and weapons. The current situation feels like 1940, but without the Wehrmacht invading Poland, occupying France, or bombing British cities - it's still testing its military strength against the Czechoslovak army.

''This is a peculiarity of the situation. Our partners behave as if this is exclusively our war, not noticing that our resistance ensures their peace.''

Europe owes its stability to Ukraine. We buy them time to rearm and increase military budgets. Our experience helps them adapt to modern warfare. Europeans now have the opportunity to learn from a war between two professional armies, as their previous military experience was mostly dealing with guerrilla movements.

''When they think about the war's outcomes, they fear a Russian defeat because it could lead to nuclear threats, the empire's collapse, a Baltic front, and sabotage in Europe. But they should also consider the aftermath if Ukraine loses.''

Millions of refugees, camps, and repression could occur, like new Mariupols and Buchas. There would be a humanitarian crisis with Russian tanks near NATO borders. Most importantly, Moscow would see it as winning the first phase against NATO.

The West may not perceive itself as a party to the conflict, but it is much more important that Moscow considers it a party to the conflict. Russia operates under its own logic, viewing the war not against an independent state but against the vanguard of a hostile empire. If Ukraine falls, Moscow might see it as a sign of weakness and try to build on its success.

The Kremlin has moved on from the old era, unlike our partners. That's why Germany refuses to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. That's why the United States asks not to bomb Russian oil refineries. That's why Poland calls for restrictions on Ukrainian exports to Europe. Against this backdrop, France, which promises to give Ukraine decommissioned military equipment instead of scrapping it, appears determined.

''But here's the twist: Ukraine is seen as a dam, shielding Europe from a global war. If this dam breaks, the world will have to stop flirting with their farmers find them military uniforms, and send them to the trenches.''

Our war remains bilateral and localized only because we are still holding on. Once we lack the resources to continue, the war will spread globally. The empire has no borders, it has only horizons. If the Russian president believes that the world in which he grew up is ideal, then you can look at maps of Europe in the 1970s.

Our situation is not a deviation, historical mistake, or dictator's whim - it's a reality that was destined for everyone, but our country happened to be in the way. If we lose, those who survive will always be able to say the sacramental "we warned you". The key is having someone left to say it.

The question isn't if European weapons will be used, but who will use them. Will Ukraine use them, allowing neighbors to remain in supportive roles? Or will Europe, tired of war, leave Ukraine to fend for itself?

Had Czechoslovakia not been abandoned, World War II's outcome might have been different. World War III is not starting just because Ukraine continues to fight.


About the author: Pavlo Kazarin, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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