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When will Iran's policy towards Ukraine and Russia change: expert explains

21 May, 2024 Tuesday
19:36

Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, says that Iran's policy toward Ukraine and Russia will not change with the change of president

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He said this on Espreso TV.

"In Iran, the presidency is an executive position. That is, the president has his own opinion and strategy, but he follows the instructions and key narratives produced by the Supreme Leader. Therefore, no matter who comes to power after Raisi's death, the situation will not change as long as the current leader Ali Khamenei exists. And it makes no sense to speculate whether some pro-Russian or anti-Russian president will come to power," Semyvolos said.

According to the director of the Center for Middle East Studies, it is not Raisi's rule that is important in this story, but Raisi's death and what happens after Raisi.

"In the sense that Ali Khamenei is a man of respectable age, he is 85 years old. Sooner or later he will die, and the position of the Supreme Leader is a key position. Earlier it was said that Raisi could be the successor to this position, but now we see that the situation is getting worse. There is no one obedient enough to follow the course of the party and the Supreme Leader. That is, the elections could lead to significant turbulence in the Iranian political class. The contradictions and disagreements that exist will be exacerbated. But changing the people in the presidency and the foreign ministry will not change anything. In general, Iran's policy towards Ukraine and Russia will not change until the change of the Supreme Leader," Semyvolos emphasized.

  • On May 19, a helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi crashed. Officials confirmed the deaths of all passengers.
  • Later it became known that the accident was caused by a technical malfunction.
  • The ISW assessed the effects of Raisi's death for Iran: they note that his death could have serious consequences for the country, but will not destabilize it in the way that the death of the Supreme Commander could.
  • Ivan Stupak, a military expert and former SBU officer, noted that the Iranians blame the US for the helicopter crash because of sanctions.
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