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Military expert Zgurets names factors influencing changes in battlefield dynamic parity

2 October, 2023 Monday
12:21

Serhiy Zgurets, Defense Express CEO and military expert, says it would be possible to break the dynamic parity through more systematic, regular and large-scale arms supplies to Ukraine

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He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Last year, the enemy began its aggression with 180,000 personnel. Now the enemy has 490,000 on a much narrower front line. That is, the density of Russian troops has increased significantly in each section of the front, which complicates the situation for the  Ukrainian Armed Forces. Today, our Defense Forces number about one million, and it can be argued that there is a certain parity even in terms of the number of personnel. The question is how to break this parity using the potential of weapons," said the expert.

Serhiy Zgurets added that the war of attrition with the use of artillery is underway. Attempts to break this dynamic parity will be possible through more systematic, regular and large-scale arms supplies.

"Next year will be the year of the ability of both sides, that is, the Europeans, the Americans and us, and on the other hand, the Russians, North Korea and Iran, to provide the supply of weapons and artillery. I am convinced that artillery will play a major role in 2024. Then we are talking about the use of drones of various scales, and then about the quality of personnel. I hope that our approaches to reformatting training, using assault units, changing training to improve interaction between brigades - all this can partially affect the change in dynamic parity. But ammunition, artillery, drones, and long-range systems will be in the first place," Zgurets summarized.

  • On April 13, the EU Council approved the allocation of EUR 1 billion for ammunition for Ukraine. On May 2, the EU prepared a plan to produce 1 million shells for Ukraine and its own stockpiles.
  • May 23 EU Chief Diplomat Josep Borrell announced that since the beginning of the year, EU states have already provided more than one-fifth of the one million artillery rounds and missiles to Ukraine as part of an initiative to provide Ukraine with one million rounds.
  • On June 1, the European Parliament supported a bill to increase European production of ammunition and missiles to support the Ukrainian army. On July 7, the Council of the European Union and the Parliament agreed on a draft regulation on the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), which will increase the production of missiles and ammunition.
  • On July 13, the European Parliament approved plans to increase the production of ammunition and missiles in the EU to overcome the current shortage due to supplies to Ukraine.
  • On September 5, the European Defense Agency signed 8 framework contracts with industry for the joint purchase of 155-mm ammunition for Ukraine.
  • On September 30, Reuters reported that seven EU countries had ordered ammunition under the EU procurement scheme to urgently deliver artillery shells to Ukraine and replenish depleted stocks in Western warehouses.
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