Espreso. Global

Kremlin prepare for second wave of mobilization - Institute for study of war

7 December, 2022 Wednesday

The Kremlin is trying to prepare the population of Russia for future waves of mobilization, despite official objections to this.

This is reported by the Institute for the study of war (ISW).

Analysts noted that Kremlin had denied rumors of a second mobilization wave to quell growing discontent in Russian society.

The ISW says the Kremlin is moving away from the limited war reports it used to ease concerns among the general Russian public about the war. 

Thus, the Institute noted that the Belgorod and Kursk regions had announced the formation of Territorial Defense Units. They exposed many civilians to war danger under the Ukrainian ground invasion threat of the Russian border regions. In turn, Moscow officials announced a special military operation throughout the city, which was only observed in remote cities and towns in the summer of 2022 against the volunteer recruitment campaigns.

"However, these information conditions are insufficient to convince the Russian population of the need for additional mobilization, given the low response to promotional activities to recruit volunteers during the summer," the report says.

According to ISW experts, the Kremlin risks further damaging its credibility by announcing a mobilization that unofficial sources predicted but Russian officials did not discuss.

"Putin’s decision to order a second wave of mobilization, general mobilization, or even announce a formal declaration of war with Ukraine will not fix the inherent constraints on Russian military power available for the war in Ukraine in the short term," the Institute claimed.

The Russian Defense Ministry is able to train only about 130,000 conscripts during the two-year peacetime draft cycle, and is struggling to train more men in a shorter period.

"The Kremlin took almost three months to prepare some of these units (partially mobilized - ed.), while it prematurely committed other ill-prepared and poorly supplied mobilized elements to the frontlines," the analysts inform.

The Kremlin's efforts to form an armed force made it invest time and material resources in its personnel. These requirements need to be better aligned with the lack of long-term strategic planning, experts add.

Other key findings of the Institute for the study of war:

  • Former pro-Russian militant leader Igor Girkin returned to the media after almost two months in the Russian-Ukrainian war and has offered a brutal first-hand account of the front-line situation.

  • Ukrainian forces have made recent gains in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region, while Russian forces have conducted limited attacks and defended themselves against Ukrainian counter-attacks.

  • Russian troops continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka

  • Russian sources claimed that Russian troops made a small territorial advance near Bakhmut, but they failed to encircle the city.

  • The Russian authorities are likely conducting an information operation to convince the Russians of the safety and integrity of the Kerch Bridge after repairing the bridge span.

  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova denied that Russia is preparing to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant or transfer it on December 5

  • The Russian forces strengthen security measures in the occupied territories

Belgorod and Kursk regions' governors announced the creation of territorial defense for "protecting the borders of the state" on December 6

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