If Kadyrov does die
If Kadyrov does die, we must understand the following things
1. History knows cases where politicians are kept in a coma for months or even years. But my favorite example is Yasser Arafat, who was buried only when all financial issues were resolved (his account and the Palestinian budget were twins). And now, apparently, three-quarters of the issues are related to financial flows.
2. Putin has repeatedly made it clear that he sees no replacement for the Kadyrov clan. There is a high probability that a model will be proposed in which Kadyrov's son will be announced as the successor (with some kind of advisory position), but a regent (someone from the Kadyrov clan) will be appointed. This model has its huge disadvantages (it may simply be unstable), but now the Kremlin is interested in stability during the transition phase.
3. The main battlefield is not Chechnya, but financial flows, in which Kadyrov was the arbiter. And all this - from drugs to legal businesses - generates billions of cash, which allowed him to maintain his own guard and much more. Now, Russia may find itself in a situation of global redistribution of these flows. The security forces will begin to tear up these flows, redirecting them to themselves. In general, Russia is on the verge of a possible major criminal redistribution.
4. It is not yet clear what the Kremlin will do with Kadyrov's private army. There are two options: to leave everything unchanged or to make a blitzkrieg to destroy this army. What will prevail: the fear of destabilization or the desire to "level" Chechnya is still unclear.
5. Kadyrov played the role of the main defender of Muslims with the corresponding informal relations in the Middle East. This is a separate vector: we do not yet understand who will occupy this niche (and whether it will be occupied at all).
About the author: Vadym Denysenko, a political scientist.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.