How will change of Turkish leader affect ties with Russia?

CNN discusses possible changes in the Turkish government's foreign policy after the election.

Over the past two decades, Erdogan's Turkey has changed its orientation from pro-Western to conservative. The NATO member, which has the second largest army in the alliance, has strengthened its ties with Russia, and in 2019 even bought weapons from it in defiance of the US. Erdogan continues to maintain close ties with Russia, which continues to wage war in Ukraine, and has caused a headache for NATO's expansion plans by delaying the membership of Finland and Sweden.

At the same time, Turkey under Erdogan's leadership has also been useful to its Western allies: last year, Ankara mediated between Ukraine and Russia over the grain issue and even provided Ukraine with drones that played a role in countering Russian attacks.

Rosatom and other Russian influences

Today, Turkey is Russia's key trading partner, as well as a center for thousands of Russians who fled after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and are now pouring money into real estate and other sectors.

As NATO countries have cut ties with Russia, Turkey has expanded its energy dependence on Moscow, cementing its presence in Turkey for the long term. In the midst of the election campaign, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated Turkey's first nuclear power plant in a virtual ceremony. And last month, the first nuclear fuel was delivered to the Akkuyu plant in Mersin province, which was built, owned and operated by Russia's state nuclear energy company Rosatom.

The strengthening of ties between Erdogan and Putin has caused unrest in the West, and increased expectations of Erdogan's possible departure. When US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake visited Erdogan's main rival in the March elections, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan called the visit a "shame" and warned that Turkey should "teach the US a lesson in this election.”

However, analysts say that even if Erdogan is not elected, the emergence of major changes in Turkey's foreign policy is not a given. While some experts close to the opposition predict a reorientation of Turkey toward the West, others believe that the main issues of foreign policy are likely to remain unchanged.

What will change after the elections

"I think there are areas where we will see radical change if the opposition wins," says Onur Isci, an assistant professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, noting that if the opposition wins, the first thing it will do is mend relations with the West.

But given how deeply intertwined the Turkish and Russian economies are, especially in energy, Turkey's pivot to the West may be limited.

Much of Erdogan's foreign policy has been driven by economic considerations, and this is likely to continue in the next government.

Trade between Russia and Turkey is growing, and last month Putin said that Russia is seeking to deepen its economic ties with Ankara, noting that as of 2022, bilateral trade exceeded USD 62 billion, TASS reported.

However, the EU remains Turkey's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching about USD 219 billion, according to the European Commission. In 2022, trade with the US amounted to approximately uSD 33.8 billion.

Russia's geographical proximity to Turkey, as well as its economic interests in Ankara, will likely mean that another leader instead of Erdogan will still maintain good relations with Russia, while firmly anchoring Turkey in its Western democratic alliances," said Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul.

"In terms of the country’s outlook, it very much will be oriented towards the democratic West," Somer commented, noting that this will not mean a complete end to disagreements with Western countries.

After several delays, Turkey this year finally allowed Finland to join NATO. Sweden's accession can be resolved with or without Erdogan, after new anti-terrorism legislation comes into effect in Sweden.

However, while relations with the EU may improve if the opposition wins, the path to establishing relations with the US, according to experts, may be longer and more difficult.

"When we mention Turkey’s relationship with the West… we sometimes take both ends of the Atlantic (as one)," Isci said. "Turkey’s relationship with the US has hit a dead end, and has been going downhill for a very long time."