Georgia has become a modular "reintegration" project of Muscovy

The situation in Georgia is interesting to us because, by and large, Georgia is a "modular project" for the Muscovites to "reintegrate" the former Soviet states into their new imperial space.

Why is Georgia so important, and why was it the place where the technologies that were later transferred to Ukraine (and, obviously, planned to be transferred to subsequent states later) were "tested"?

The states that emerged from the former USSR can be divided into two broad groups (although it is clear that within these groups these states themselves are very different).

“The states that emerged from the former USSR can be divided into two broad groups (although it is clear that within these groups these states themselves are very different)”

The first group is those countries that continued to exist as satellites of Moscow. The most striking example is Belarus, which never became a full-fledged independent state but still exists as a protectorate. Everything is simple with them. Just suppress an occasional uprising. It is not so difficult to do this, since the development of civil society has been slowed down, there are no institutions, and no one knows of alternatives.

The second group includes states that have chosen to move away from Moscow. Mostly in the "western direction." Of course, these states also fall into subgroups. There are Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which, using their past state experience, immediately moved towards the EU and NATO, managing to hide under the umbrella while Moscow was going through another "troubled time."

And then there are Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, which had been going through 30 years of hardship, revolutions, and wars. In the end, Europe got the biggest war in 70 years in the form of the Muscovites' attack on Ukraine.

At the same time, the Kremlin has clear intentions to regain control of the entire former USSR and the former Warsaw Pact. This is what they actually stated in their 2021 "ultimatum" to the US and NATO. So, they also want to "return" Lithuania and Estonia. Despite their NATO membership. Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn are well aware of this.

“The Kremlin has clear intentions to regain control of the entire former USSR and the former Warsaw Pact. This is what they actually stated in their 2021 "ultimatum" to the US and NATO”

But it is one thing to strengthen Lukashenko's regime in Belarus, where there was nothing but this regime, and it is another thing to involve societies that are used to developing on other principles. A different approach is needed here. And it was tested in Georgia. I think they were preparing something in the same vein for Ukraine.

The meaning of this approach is as follows. You occupy and annex a part of the state. You accompany this with military terror, which should create the impression that there is no defense against this terror. And then you promote loyal politicians in the non-annexed territory who do not demonstrate this loyalty directly, but do what you need. At the same time, they do not rely on "love" for Muscovites, but purely on a paralyzing path. They say that since you can't do anything about the Muscovite threat, you have to "not provoke" it.

So, the scheme is as follows: 1) fragmenting the state, annexing some parts directly, and politically installing loyal politicians in some places; 2) relying on fear, intimidation, and propaganda "to prevent a repeat of such a war."

“The current Georgian regime is so valuable to the Kremlin because it inspires them to believe that they can "return Ukraine" in the same way: "annex" half of it to Russia, install puppet regimes somewhere in Central Ukraine, and set up a "government" in Lviv that will tell them that ‘Muscovites are beasts, but it is better not to provoke them.’”

In the case of Georgia, it worked. That's why the current Georgian regime is so valuable to the Kremlin, because it inspires them to believe that they can "return Ukraine" in the same way: "annex" half of it to Russia, install puppet regimes somewhere in Central Ukraine, and create a "government" in Lviv that will tell them that "Muscovites are beasts, but it's better not to provoke them." Of course, all of this is a stupid emptying of the minds of schizo-ideologues, but looking at Georgia, you realize what kind of future the Kremlin could have planned for Ukraine.

That's why Kremlin propagandists like Simonyan are so frantic and promise to "turn Tbilisi to dust," because they realize that all their attempts to deceive the course of history are futile. Georgia, too, is already returning to the normal, mainstream path of development, although there will obviously be a long and difficult struggle. But in Belarus, too, the Lukashenko regime and all other puppet regimes will fall.

You can endlessly build complex technological constructs, build a mechanism of terror, try to scare everyone... But you can never scare history itself.

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About the author. Petro Oleshchuk, political scientist

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.