Europe has 6-9 years before Russia attacks
This is somewhat surprising given the confused and financially pessimistic statements made by allies in recent months. In Germany, they came to their senses and assessed the prospects of Russia's attack on NATO, if they were given a truce to enable mobilization and weapon production. The destruction of the Russian army in Ukraine was recognized as the only option for countering the Kremlin's plans
This is actually a very unexpected statement. We have already managed to come to terms with the unfortunate prospects of support, with the fact that the allies still have a Russia-centric assessment of global prospects. And all of a sudden.
Dated November 8, 2023, a report from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), which is an official organization, not a private warmongering initiative, by the way, suggests: NATO member countries in Europe have 6 to 9 years left before Russia attacks.
More precisely, the Russian Federation will need 6-9 years to restore its army and armed potential to a level where it might contemplate attacking NATO. The "Mortal Countdown" will begin from the moment of cessation of intensive hostilities in Ukraine — that is, from the onset of the ceasefire that all allies and neutrals are leaning towards.
When the Armed Forces no longer pose threats, Russia will swiftly shift all available production to military goods for maximum stockpiling (so as not to borrow from Kim Jong Un and exchange with Iran during the height of hostilities).
Dr. Christian Mölling from DGAP and Torben Schütz from the Center for Security and Defense in Berlin estimate that Russia could train approximately 280,000 new recruits annually. In six years, this number could reach 1.7 million (they do not make a discount for Russians constantly dying from alcohol abuse). Over a decade, there could be 2.8 million Russians of the suitable age undergoing military training. This includes those with actual combat experience in Ukraine, Syria, or elsewhere.
Consequently, NATO must be prepared for potential conflict in 5-8 years, ideally a year before the Russian military industry and army's deadline. This means restocking warehouses, disposing of outdated items (Ukraine using them against the Russians), replacing them with modern equivalents, and addressing insufficient production for the required number of shells, weapons, and equipment. Only this approach can, to some extent, ensure the deterrence of Russia's potential military aggression.
German analysts have outlined five crucial steps for NATO's survival.
- Ensure backing for the Armed Forces to enhance their capability against Russia in potential future offensives on Ukrainian soil.
- Integrate Ukraine into the European defense sector. Recognize Ukraine's enduring geostrategic significance for European security due to its proximity to Russia and Belarus.
- Balance relations with the US, putting in the necessary efforts to bolster Germany's own military strength.
- Impose stringent sanctions to hinder the Russian military industry.
- Germany should fortify the Bundeswehr and commit to a decade-long investment in the defense sector to enhance national security.
The steps are both obvious and strategically advantageous for the EU, NATO, and Ukraine.
This, essentially, represents the core of our defense and security aspirations.
Admittedly, the analysis is highly positive for us. We've been anticipating something like this since the beginning of the great war – which is quite hard to believe even. And this conclusion comes from a specialized state structure.
Even if this becomes the cornerstone of Germany's, the EU's, and NATO's entire security policy, it still needs validation from national governments and parliaments (with lots of leftists and Russian lobbyists), as well as systemic changes in the economy and social aspects (like conscript training and benefits, etc.)
However, the fact that this is even being discussed in Europe quite officially is a breakthrough in regional geopolitics and collective security strategy.
Obviously, Ukraine should endorse these conclusions and recommendations with all its might, using them as a basis for renewed international policy and relations with allies. This is the only real option for our victory and recovery as a state. But who would do that…
About the author. Oleksiy Holobutsky, political scientist
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.