Developments in Ukraine’s south will be more dynamic, Russia miscalculated its offensive: weekly military results 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing their best in the offensive in the south – changes at the front will be significant in the future

Quality systemic changes are taking place in the southern direction. They relate not only to the liberation of Staromaiorske, which is an important element of a proper Ukrainian strategy. The point is that in all areas where we can put pressure in the south, we are doing so. Staromaiorske is the Berdiansk direction. Then there is the advance of Ukrainian forces towards Staromlynivka, and this indicates that they are approaching the first line of enemy defense.

The second area where the offensive is taking place is near Robotyne, a little bit west of Staromaiorske. There is an advance between Robotyne and Verbove. In both areas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are pressing the Russians, but the advance is rather slow. This is confirmed by General Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria operational and strategic group of troops. He says that we are advancing through minefields and this complicates the movement. The enemy has taken significant defense measures, but Tarnavsky says that any defense can be broken through. The only question is the right approach, and ours is the right approach.

As for the assessments of Western countries. They recognize that the progress of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not as fast as expected. The Ukrainian army is doing the best it can under the circumstances. Changes in the south will be more significant and dynamic in the future. This can happen after the enemy is destroyed in the area where the Ukrainian army is currently moving. 

Now the enemy is in a difficult situation - all four directions in the south are such that they will not have enough reserves to compensate for the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Especially if they act not on two, but on four or five directions in the south. The Russians are trying to quell the panic and say that none of these areas are important. But each of these areas is significant because they shake up a fairly broad Russian front. Each of these areas may turn out to be a failure for the Russians, because Ukraine has not yet used its main forces. So far, several brigades and, above all, artillery are working to ensure the destruction of the enemy. The combination of infantry and artillery is the basis of current tactics.

Then, when the conditions are created for the advance of mechanized fists, I think the situation will change so quickly that Russian propagandists will not have time to come up with a concept of why they are making a so-called reverse retreat. In many areas, the loss of equipment in the south is 1:4, 1:5 in Ukraine’s favor. This suggests that the approach of destroying main equipment is working quite effectively.

The Russian forces are hoping in vain to divert the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Kupiansk direction

The Kupiansk direction is relevant and important. On July 28, General Syrskyi commented on this area, saying that the enemy is constantly attacking in the Kupiansk-Lyman direction and using more professional units. Every day Ukrainian troops repel these attacks and no positions have been lost. I think this assessment was made after the enemy had a tactical limited success - when they crossed the Zherebets River and entrenched themselves on the right bank near Karmazynivka.

Then information began to emerge that the enemy had started moving towards Novoyehorivka, Nadiya, and Serhiivka. This information was denied, but these advances did take place, and then the Russian forces were driven out of there. These settlements are in the lowlands and even if the enemy now uses its tank reserves, it will be very difficult to move through this territory. Ukrainian units are on the heights behind these settlements. I think the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already reinforced these areas with artillery. The situation will be such that the enemy will be ground down by cluster munitions. The enemy has miscalculated the time of the offensive and the hope that it will be able to divert the attention of the command and reserves in this way to hold this entire area. Russia will use the reserves that still remain. There is every opportunity to destroy the enemy in this section of the front.

The main burden of preventing artificial famine lies with Ukraine

Russia has begun the process of creating an artificial famine in Africa by completely blocking Ukrainian grain ports. This is happening not only through blocking, but also through attacks on port infrastructure. NATO's actions are not yet active - the Alliance is not going to activate the forces of Turkey, Romania or Bulgaria to cover civilian ships. Although such a scenario is possible, NATO is not ready for a systemic deep confrontation with Russia. We hear that Romania is trying to expand transportation across the Danube. I think Romania is being added in a technical way to minimize Russia's blocking. Russia is ready to use force, and Ukraine is also ready to use force against Russian ships if they act against civilian vessels. Now there is a fragile balance, but the issue is extremely complex and a more powerful response from the UN and NATO countries is needed. So far, we see that the main burden is on Ukraine.