Conflict between Shoigu and Prigozhin has gone so far that it doesn’t allow Wagner's forces to perform combat missions - military expert Zgurets

Situation around Bakhmut and Kreminna

A statement was made by the owner of the PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, who says that there is no ammunition. He lacks effective infantry fighting vehicles and artillery. The Ukrainian army has built 500 lines of defense in Bakhmut, which cannot be overcome. This may indicate that Wagner's forces are running out of strength or that the conflict between Shoigu's and Prigozhin's armies has gone too far to allow Wagner's forces to carry out combat operations.

Russia has not gone far from the Soviet paradigm. These arrivals of commanders suggest that things are close to a tragic conclusion for the Russian army. The developments near Kreminna will most likely end with the abandonment of Kreminna, which will lead to the destruction of the Russian defense section front in this direction, or will lead to the encirclement of the Russian forces’ tactical grouping in the area.

The military focuses its efforts on stopping the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Kreminna. Meanwhile, Prigozhin and his mercenaries are unsuccessfully conducting assault operations in the area of Bakhmut, trying to bypass the city from the North. Units of the Russian forces are trying to bypass Kurdiumivka from the South. Russian forces are trying to constrain the actions of Bakhmut's defenders with groups and frontal attacks, attacking head-on from East to West.

The expert of the Center for Defense Strategies added that Prigozhin has spent a lot of resources, lost a huge number of people, and has not achieved any results, and this may indicate that his business is under threat. Businessman Prigozhin wants to divert attention from his own miscalculations and failures, looking for reasons in another department. The conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu really exists because Prigozhin wants to take Shoigu's post.

The probability of an attack on the Kharkiv region

For some reason, Russia believes that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are trying to prepare an offensive in the area of Kupiansk, to force the Oskil river and move northward, liberating the northern Luhansk region, said Viktor Kevlyuk, an expert of the Center for Defense Strategies. Russia in this direction is preparing not for an offensive, but for a defensive operation.

At the same time, Ukrainian General Andriy Melnyk, who has access to intelligence data and his statement contains another meaning, is not yet available to civilians. I do not see any possibility that Russia can conduct an offensive in the North of Ukraine, especially in the Kharkiv direction.

Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in the South

The operational grouping “Dnepr” troops, as it is called by Russian forces, is currently being deployed in the South. So far they have not decided on the commander, and the acting commander is Colonel General Teplynsky.

This group assumes the function of preparing the defensive operation, and the right flank of this group runs along the line Vasylivka - Tokmak - Berdyansk.

Accordingly, we can conclude that Russia will make significant efforts to hold the corridor and prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from entering Crimea. That is, there is no question of an offensive. All the shootings that take place along the front line are local in nature. This is not preparation for something bigger, but just annoying attrition fire from both sides.

On the Ukrainian side, the strikes on the control points, places of personnel concentration, on air defense positions are absolutely logical and predictable, because we began to test the tactics of softening the enemy forces in the southern direction six months ago. As a result, the Kherson-Beryslav bridgehead was liberated. We should not lose sight of the fact that such tactics will be used in the future. By March, in principle, the command, and control system, air defense, and logistics will be destroyed, and Russia’s human resources will be significantly thinned out. There will be no one to physically defend the corridor to Crimea. Perhaps such options will become a reality.