Prigozhin sets conditions to shift responsibility for failures in Bakhmut to Russian MoD - ISW

The ISW shared its assumptions in its usual report.

Prigozhin tried to justify the lack of  Wagner PMC group progress in Bakhmut, which confirmed ISW's previous estimates that Russian forces in Bakhmut have reached the culmination, experts said.

In an interview with one of the Russian propaganda media on December 31, Prigozhin said that Wagner men could not break through the Ukrainian defenses in Bakhmut. He said that offensive operations are very exhausting because every house in the town is a "fortress". Prigozhin said that Ukraine "has defensive lines every 10 meters in Bakhmut, and therefore Russian troops have to clear building after building".

“This is a significant inflection for Prigozhin and the first time he has framed Wagner forces in Bakhmut as making effectively no gains. Prigozhin previously stated in October 2022 that Wagner forces operating in the Bakhmut area advance 100–200 meters a day. The Wagner Group conducted information operations to assert that Wagner Group forces exclusively made gains in Bakhmut without the assistance of other Russian elements in December,” ISW report says.

In this way, Prigozhin is likely setting informational conditions to shift the responsibility for the Wagner failures in Bakhmut onto the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian defense industry.

“Wagner Group soldiers told Prigozhin that they were unable to break through Ukrainian lines in Bakhmut due to insufficient armored vehicles, ammunition, and 100mm shell supplies during a likely scripted segment in the clip. This statement seeks to absolve the Wagner Group and Prigozhin of personal responsibility by attributing their failure to capture Bakhmut to the larger Russian resource allocation problems that Russian and Ukrainian sources have been increasingly discussing since late December,” ISW experts added.

Other key ISW takeaways

• Vladimir Putin approved a series of instructions for Russian agencies and senior officials, likely aimed at appeasing widespread criticism over the provision and payment of benefits to Russian military personnel
• Putin confirmed that Russia uses various social schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia
• Systemic failures in Russian efforts to build up the armed forces continue to damage Russian human resources
• The deterioration of the military's human resources is likely to further intensify Russian military bloggers' criticism of the security forces and the Russian Ministry of Defense
• Russian troops continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove - Kreminna line, while Ukrainian forces continued to strike at Russian military logistics facilities in the Luhansk region
• Russian troops continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and may be strengthening their grouping in the western part of the Donetsk region
• Vladimir Putin signed a decree on additional benefits for some servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces and National Guard

Earlier, the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin justified his inability to capture Bakhmut by the fact that there are "500 lines of defense" in the town set up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, i.e. Wagner mercenaries have to overcome resistance every 10 meters, in every house.