Impact of assassination attempt on Trump - Ukrainian expert Resurgam

I will focus on another aspect: electoral values.

1. Will people support Trump more now? 

Not a certainty; it's best to wait two weeks for polling data, as it typically takes that long to record real electoral shifts in response to an event. Only then we can make an assessment. Given the polarization of U.S. society, this event may have minimal or no impact. Trump supporters are likely to remain steadfast, Biden's base will likely stay loyal, and undecided voters - often moderates - may not universally accept the narrative that "Biden ordered Trump." Many might dismiss it as a coincidence.

We have a relatively recent example with Fico, who despite receiving substantial media coverage following an assassination attempt, did not see a significant impact on electoral prospects. The attempt occurred on May 15, with European Parliament elections held on June 9. Despite this, Fico's party lost to Progressive Slovakia, despite its prior strong showing in parliamentary elections. Slovakia's experience mirrors that of the United States, with highly polarized blocs in terms of values and perceptions.

2. Are Trump voters mobilizing like never before?

This is also not a guaranteed assertion. There is still considerable time before the election, and if we consider the electorate as a broad generalization, it shows significant characteristics of instability. Issues that currently mobilize them intensely may have limited or no effect in the future.

3. Will Trump still win some percentage nationally?

If we hypothesize that this incident will boost Trump's support, we should focus not on national results but on swing states. Biden's recent setbacks haven't shown significant changes there, and two studies indicated that the gap narrowed after the debate failure. The real question is whether the Trump incident could add 2-3-4% support in these states and sustain it for a month or two. If so, then we could conclude that this event critically influenced the election trajectory.

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About the author. Expert of the Telegram channel Resurgam.

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