Group of European countries quietly drafting plan to deploy troops to Ukraine

The Associated Press reported the information.

Britain and France are leading efforts to send troops into Ukraine to enforce a future peace deal with Russia, although details remain scarce. The countries involved are cautious, aiming not to give Vladimir Putin an advantage if he agrees to negotiate an end to the war.

The AP emphasized that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requires security guarantees until peace is secured, with NATO membership being the ideal option. However, the U.S. has ruled that out. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the UK would play a role in ensuring security, acknowledging that some form of guarantee is necessary if peace is achieved.

The Europeans began exploring the type of force needed about a year ago, but the urgency has increased due to concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could bypass them - and potentially Ukraine - to secure a deal with Putin.

European powers weigh the path forward

In December, before Trump took office, European leaders and ministers met with Zelenskyy at NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s residence in Brussels. Attendees included representatives from Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland, along with top EU officials. The talks built on a plan proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024, which sparked controversy but has gained momentum since.

Details about the force's composition and participation will depend on the terms of a peace settlement. Italy faces constitutional restrictions, while the Netherlands and Germany would need parliamentary approval, with Germany's stance possibly changing after the Feb. 23 elections. 

“We are in a very early stage,” Hanno Pevklur, Estonia’s defense minister told The Associated Press on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

Pevkur stressed that European allies must first understand Ukraine's contact line before planning. If forces are reduced to a few thousand on each side, European involvement would be manageable, but a prolonged conflict would complicate matters.

Strong security force, not peacekeepers

The force's composition and role will depend on the peace deal terms, with fewer security measures and a smaller force needed if Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement. However, experts warn that, given the current situation, Europeans must deploy a robust and sizable contingent rather than a peacekeeping force like UN “blue helmets.”

“It has to be a real force (so) that the Russians know that if they ever tested it they would get crushed. And you can be sure that Russia will test it. They violate every single agreement. So if we send a force in there, they’ve got to have airpower, large land forces, drones, counter-drones, air and missile defense. All of that,” Ben Hodges, the former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, said last month at a European Policy Centre think tank event.

Retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand stated that UN peacekeepers are suited for stable zones and would take about a year to deploy. And Latvia's Defense Minister Andris Sprūds highlighted the need for training Ukrainian soldiers and investing in Ukraine’s defense industry.

How large a force?

The size and location of the European contingent will depend on the peace deal terms. Zelenskyy has called for 100,000 to 150,000 troops, while media reports suggest 30,000-40,000, though diplomats haven’t confirmed these figures. Ukraine also seeks air support in addition to ground troops.

European leaders would struggle to assemble a large-scale force quickly. French President Macron called the idea of deploying a massive force "far-fetched," emphasizing the need for a realistic, well-thought-out approach.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed the importance of "robust international oversight" of the front line, but Europeans are hesitant due to the large number of troops required. Most agree that a U.S. "backstop" is essential, given Europe's reliance on American military capabilities.

The U.S. establishes ground rules

On Wednesday at NATO headquarters, Hegseth outlined the conditions under which the U.S. might support a force to provide Ukraine with "robust security guarantees" to prevent the war from restarting.

“Any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” Hegseth told almost 50 of Ukraine’s Western backers. If they go to Ukraine, he said, “they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission.”

Putin has cited NATO's expansion near Russia’s borders as a key reason for the invasion, making him unlikely to accept any operation led by the alliance. Hegseth emphasized that European allies involved would not be protected by NATO’s collective security guarantee if attacked and confirmed that no U.S. troops would be deployed to Ukraine.

From Ukraine's perspective, a Europe-only operation wouldn’t suffice. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha warned on Thursday that security guarantees would be impossible without U.S. involvement.