Ukraine must expand its army to 1.5 million troops without U.S., EU security guarantees. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Munich Security Conference

It remains unclear how the situation will evolve amid the negotiations and what decisions will be made following the Munich Conference, where a number of loud and sometimes contradictory statements were heard. In particular, U.S. representatives stated that Ukraine should forget about NATO, accept the loss of territories seized by the enemy, discussed the possibility of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine, and the presence of U.S. troops in Ukraine.

However, the most important thing for Ukraine is to obtain security guarantees from the U.S. and European countries. If such guarantees are not provided and Ukraine does not become a NATO member, Zelenskyy reiterated that the size of the Ukrainian army should increase to 1.5 million troops.

Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine consist of 110 brigades engaged in combat along the front line, while the enemy has more than 200 combat brigades, whereas NATO has only 83 brigades. Russia plans to prepare 15 more divisions for training and reinforcement in the Belarusian direction, totaling 150,000 Russian troops. Zelenskyy also stated that these forces could be directed toward Poland or the Baltics.

According to the president, one of the security guarantees could be the deployment of a foreign military contingent in Ukraine, numbering about 110,000 troops. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has already calculated the optimal locations for these contingents.

Zelenskyy also emphasized the need to increase arms supplies to Ukraine. In particular, he mentioned the need for 150 F-16 fighter jets and 25 Patriot systems. The question remains whether Ukraine’s partners are willing to provide such supplies.

Kyiv has submitted a memorandum project to the United States regarding rare earth metals as a potential new format of cooperation—possibly as payment for security guarantees or arms supplies. Despite various scenarios, no concrete action plan has crystallized yet. The entire negotiation process will likely proceed in parallel with developments on the front line.

Russian losses

According to estimates from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, since 2022, Russian losses in personnel amount to 783,000 soldiers and officers, including 172,000 killed. The rest are wounded, some of whom have returned to service. Despite the losses, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine has significantly increased from 120,000 in 2022 to over 617,000 now.

Deputy Minister of Defense Ivan Havryliuk noted that the number of mobilized troops in the Russian army is about 36,000 soldiers per month. However, enemy losses in the last quarter and in January exceeded 40,000, meaning that Russia is unable to accumulate the reserves necessary for further offensive operations. Destroying enemy forces remains a critical task for the Ukrainian side.

Over the past year, the Russian army has lost about 1,500 tanks and 3,000 armored vehicles. However, Russia has managed to restore approximately the same number of tanks and armored vehicles. The key question now is what stockpiles Russia has for restoring this equipment, including tanks, BMPs, and armored vehicles. Experts in London conclude that Russia’s losses and means of replenishment—considering Soviet-era stockpiles—allow it to maintain the current intensity of offensive actions until the end of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026.

Ukraine must find ways to destroy enemy armored vehicles. Over the past three years, the rate of equipment destruction has been quite high: according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 10,000 tanks have been destroyed or damaged. Confirmed photographic evidence guarantees that around 3,000 tanks were destroyed in previous combat phases. The question now is how to technologically expand the ability to eliminate enemy personnel, weaponry, and arsenals.

Technological solutions for Ukraine’s Armed Forces

Pavlo Kyshkar, a former Ukrainian MP, lieutenant colonel, and senior officer of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Command, noted that mobilization processes are important, but mobilizing people just to fill infantry ranks is not very wise, considering the enemy’s much larger potential. The new commander of the ground forces is shifting focus toward technological progress and personnel training, leveraging Ukrainian weaponry and developments, which could change the course of battles.

Currently, at least four entities are engaged in the development and production of guided aerial bombs. These organizations have presented their prototypes, some of which have successfully passed tests. The next step is to accelerate the implementation of these technologies through scaling.

Developments are ongoing, and standardized solutions already exist to convert unguided bombs into guided ones, Kyshkar said. However, scaling requires government support and funding.

"Unfortunately, there is no official customer in the form of the commander-in-chief or the president. If a responsible person were appointed by the president, it would be an important step toward scaling a project that the military considers the best. Contracts must be paid for. This is a purely Ukrainian development that boosts GDP, creates jobs, and improves battlefield conditions. To change the situation, 100-150, or preferably 200, guided aerial bombs need to be used," he said.

Often, the process of forming requirements and implementing them faces issues. Legally, the Ministry of Defense controls this process. There is no guarantee that a request will be fulfilled, even if there is a formal appeal for the required equipment. The process is a political decision, the lieutenant colonel emphasized.

"What we successfully use on the battlefield should be procured. Unfortunately, that is not always the case, and much of the necessary equipment is purchased with volunteer and business funds. We would like to see a greater role from the government and the Ministry of Defense in this process, as well as a more coordinated approach between the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense. I hope that the reform of the Defense Procurement Agency will contribute to this," he added.

The head of a company producing fiber-optic drones said they spent six months undergoing the coding process and were only recently added to the government procurement registry. This is far too long in wartime conditions. Kyshkar noted that units are interested in quickly codifying such items, and the process for simple systems should take up to 60 days. Currently, this is done online, and documents can be submitted to the Ministry of Defense’s Military-Technical Policy Department.

According to him, Ukraine has developed comprehensive solutions for using various strike systems, such as ground-based complexes, stationary ground systems, and unmanned aerial systems. These minimize human involvement in repelling attacks. Such integrated solutions have already been presented to leadership, but without a political decision, their implementation is impossible. A high-level official is needed to oversee this procurement.

"So far, we have not managed to convince leadership of the need for automated fire control systems, including for mining, demining, surveillance, and strikes using unmanned aerial systems. But the developments exist, and I believe that, over time, we will present them to the Ministry of Defense and relevant military commanders. Next week, we have two major meetings planned with newly appointed department heads. We will showcase integrated solutions, including guided aerial bombs and new defense technologies against Shahed drones. Everything we have developed will be presented to the newly appointed deputy ministers," he concluded.

Drone strike on Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant

On the night of February 14, Russia attacked the shelter of the destroyed 4th reactor of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant with a drone. The fire was extinguished. Radiation levels did not rise, but the enemy’s terrorist attack was a demonstration. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that such actions by Russia indicate that Putin is not preparing for negotiations. Therefore, united pressure on the aggressor is necessary, and Russia must be held accountable for its actions.