What guarantees can NATO give to Ukraine, Russian missile in Poland's heart – military expert Zgurets

Russian missile in Poland

Regarding the missile wreckage that was found in Poland, it was an unintercepted Kh-55 missile. It was found at a distance of 400 km from Ukraine, which is almost the middle of Poland. Investigations are ongoing, and the national institute has confirmed that it is an Kh-55 that did not have a warhead. 

Last fall, Russia launched similar missiles on the territory of Ukraine to deplete our air defense. As we can see, one of these missiles flew over half of Poland's territory and was not shot down, which raises questions for the Polish military leadership. I think they will now draw certain conclusions as to why this happened, because even the military themselves do not understand. But in any case, we understand that the reason is the destructive and terrorist actions of the Russian Federation, because such missiles flew over the territory of Moldova, even over Romania, although it did not confirm this, and now they have entered the territory of a NATO country, which requires a certain reaction from the Alliance. We will see in what format it will be, either from Poland or from NATO as a whole.

What to expect from NATO for Ukraine

On May 10, a meeting of the NATO Military Committee, the highest military body of the Alliance, was held, attended by the Chiefs of Staff of the member states. For the first time, their counterpart from Sweden participated. 

On the eve of the event, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a statement outlining NATO's main tasks. 

He said that this was a decisive decade for NATO's defense and forces. According to him, the Alliance is preparing for a dangerous future and plans to redouble its efforts to guarantee security for citizens and ensure the rule of law, as war threatens the whole of Europe. 

NATO is now moving to a new concept - from "deterrence by retaliation" to "deterrence by denial". 

Oleksii Melnyk, Head of Foreign Policy and International Security Programs at the Razumkov Center, explained that the NATO Military Committee is an advisory body that makes recommendations to political leaders. This meeting took place a few weeks before the summit in Vilnius, where political decisions will be made. Melnyk believes that the purpose of this meeting is to prepare military decisions so that they can be approved at the political level.

Melnyk names three options for the development of events and security guarantees for Ukraine today: 

• Gaining full NATO membership. This is the best option for Ukraine, which will be provided with a so-called "nuclear umbrella," but the expert believes that this is unrealistic for Ukraine at the moment;

• Intermediate guarantees, such as those that Finland had. Melnyk emphasizes that this option is also unlikely, because Finland had a much faster path to NATO, and thus needed guarantees for only a few months;

• Relying on its own defense forces. Melnyk emphasizes that the ability to defend itself is the most important thing now.

The expert also commented on Ukrainians' expectations of a counteroffensive and noted that it is unlikely to be a decisive victory, although this possibility should not be ruled out. According to him, in any case, there should be a convincing defeat on the battlefield for the Russian Armed Forces, and this should be seen in Russia. He believes that if Russia sees that after Kharkiv, Kherson, and Bakhmut there will be at least a small strategic success for Ukraine, it will be a turning point in the war, if not a turning point, then close to a turning point.