What are Iranian drones, and what danger do they pose?

It has been written more than once that the acquisition of ballistic missiles is part of the Russia-Iran agreement, according to which Russia supplies Iran with nuclear technology and enriched uranium, and Iran supplies Russia with ballistic missiles.

In general, by mid-February, Iran allegedly promises to supply Russia with up to 250 missiles (!)

It's a lot.

And Russian forces allegedly want to launch them with one or two volleys in order to exhaust the Ukrainian missile defense system and destroy critical infrastructure.

Will they be able to do it and what will it lead to?

Let me remind you that the Russians have already fired more than 4,700 missiles into Ukraine (!)

Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles were previously discussed for supply to the Russians.

Their characteristics:

1. Fateh-110

- Iranian mobile single-stage solid-propellant surface-to-surface missile.

- Maximum range: 200-300 km.

- Warhead: 500 kg.

- Accuracy: 3 m.

- capable of developing the maximum speed of  Mach 4: 4900 km/h.

“After launch, the missile flies in a parabola, leaving the atmosphere in the middle part of the trajectory, after which it descends almost vertically on the target literally from space.”

This is a ballistic missile.

That is, it performs most of the flight on an uncontrolled ballistic trajectory.

In other words, after launch, the missile flies in a parabola, leaving the atmosphere in the middle part of the trajectory, after which it descends almost vertically on the target literally from space.

Thus, the missile's reach time for air defense equipment is reduced to a minimum, which makes it difficult to intercept and shoot down.

2. Zolfaghar

- An Iranian tactical ballistic missile believed to be part of the Fateh-110 family.

- This is a road-mobile two-stage solid-fuel short-range ballistic missile of the "ground-to-ground" class.

- Range: 300-700 km. 

- Warhead: 500 kg of high-explosive fragmentation.

Later it was reported that Russia will not receive Zolfaghar for 700 kilometers, only Fateh-110, but for 300 kilometers.

But even 300 km is a long distance.

Ukrainian Neptune, for comparison, has a range of 280 km. But Neptune is a cruise missile, and the Iranian ones are ballistic.

And this is bad news.

It is difficult to shoot them down, even for Americans.

What are ballistic missiles?

The trajectory of a ballistic missile is divided into an active and ballistic section.

At the beginning of its movement, rising to a significant height, with the help of the flight control system, the ballistic missile receives the speed and direction necessary to hit the target.  After turning off the engine, the warhead of the missile continues its uncontrolled movement along the given trajectory.

The danger of ballistic missiles lies in the height and high speed of flight.

“The best areas for hitting drones are the starting and final ones, but in the latter case there is very little time left to shoot down the rocket”

Missiles can hit targets at an angle close to vertical.

The best areas for hitting them are the starting and final ones, but in the latter case there is very little time left to shoot down the rocket.

The best way to counter is to destroy the missiles where they are launched from, which is about a range of 300.

The range of HIMARS supplied to Ukraine is only 80 km.

Although the maximum range reaches 300 km. But we have not yet been supplied with such missiles.

And we are talking about the long-known MGM-140 ATACMS.

ATACMS can be fired from rocket launchers such as the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS.

And it would be a very good protection for us (!).

Another way to effectively counter ballistic missiles can be the American Aegis missile defense system.

A similar one is used in the USA and one has already been installed in Poland.

Aegis is designed to protect against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and is part of the US national missile defense system.

Ukraine does not yet have such systems, we have a fairly wide range of air defense systems, but the main problem of Zolfaghar for our air defense systems is that this missile has a warhead weighing 579 kg, which separates when it hits the target, which makes it difficult to detect, track and destroy it. 

For example, Iskander solid-body missiles are easier to intercept in this regard.

“Regarding the simultaneous launch of hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, there is good news. This is trivially impossible, because the number of launchers supplied to Russia will be clearly limited.”

How can events develop?

Horde can really get more than a hundred ballistic missiles.

This, in turn, will stimulate the West to provide Ukraine with more aid, including the already mentioned ATACMS missiles, which allow the destruction of launchers.

Sanctions against Russia and Iran will also be strengthened.

Regarding the simultaneous launch of hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, there is good news.

This is trivially impossible, because the number of launchers supplied to Russia will be clearly limited.

Maybe several dozen of them, but definitely not a hundred.

So, there are chances to repulse the missiles, although it will not be easy. And possible damage, if any, will be limited.

We can handle everything!

About the author. Anatolii Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.