First appointments under Trump

According to the author of the Resurgam Telegram channel, three key factions are vying for influence within the U.S. political sphere: the pro-Ukrainian camp, led by Pompeo; the “Asia-focused” camp, and the isolationists, with Musk and Trump Jr. seemingly leading this group.

American media reports suggest that Musk has been staying at Trump's villa and taking part in discussions about appointments. His actions, along with Trump Jr.'s, seem to be pushing Pompeo and his faction out of contention for top positions. The decision ultimately came down to the “Asia-focused” and the isolationists, who are closest to Trump's inner circle.

In the end, the "Asia-focused" emerged victorious, with Marco Rubio slated for Secretary of State and Michael Waltz for National Security Advisor. Both are focused on shifting U.S. priorities toward confronting China and, if possible, extricating the U.S. from the war in Ukraine. 

"Both are seasoned career politicians, and while their personal goals may align, the desires of their boss could be different, and the situation on the ground may or may not allow them to pursue those goals. If they’re experienced enough to understand the changing circumstances, they’ll likely adjust their approach. It’s their experience that will allow them to see the shifting global landscape around the United States," the author believes.

Trump needs two things in the realm of foreign policy: to win the upcoming trade war with China and to find a way to exit the war in Ukraine in a way that his voters perceive as a "dignified withdrawal."

Whether it’s China or Ukraine, the responsibility for both issues will ultimately rest with Rubio and Waltz, not Trump directly. These two advisors will have to navigate a complex reality that could make it challenging for the administration to achieve its initial foreign policy goals.

• The European Council has confirmed its commitment to continue supporting Ukraine, regardless of the actions taken by the U.S. In fact, Europe has already begun seeking additional resources to ensure ongoing assistance.
• Both French President Macron and UK Labor leader Starmer reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine, regardless of the stance taken by the U.S. 
• Other European nations, including Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Baltic states, and Poland, have also reiterated their unwavering support for Ukraine.
• Furthermore, the NATO Secretary General has endorsed this position.
• Potential new German Chancellor Merz stated that he would work out a deal with Trump, positioning Germany as a global leader. He also made a bold statement, saying he would give Putin 24 hours to end the war or else Germany would supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles and authorize the use of weapons on Russian territory.

"In other words, Rubio and Waltz will face a European landscape that is very different from their experience during 2016-2020. Trump and his team still seem to believe that Europe operates according to the same principles as in 2016, but it doesn't," the author emphasizes.

The U.S. and the "Asia-focused" camp will ultimately need Europe's support to counter China. Any U.S. actions that exclude Europe from the effort to confront China will have limited impact. This is likely to result in an informal agreement between the U.S. and Europe: "Support against China in exchange for support for Ukraine."

By the time Trump takes office, Ukraine may have secured long-term financial and logistical resources, even without U.S. assistance following his inauguration. Moreover, several European countries are expected to increase their support for Ukraine, depending on how the situation with the U.S. evolves.

The new advisors will likely attempt to carry out Trump's wishes regarding Ukraine but will quickly be confronted with a much different situation in Europe than they anticipated, along with a reduced reliance on U.S. aid. This will become evident within 3 to 6 months.

After that, the main phase will begin, when the advisors will be forced to recognize the reality in Europe and acknowledge that achieving their goals unilaterally — without taking Europe’s position into account—will be impossible.

"Rubio and Waltz are smart enough to understand and accept this when they realize that most of their policies are unfeasible. The only question is whether Trump will listen to them," the author concludes.