Ukraine's battlefield success pushes China away from Russia - diplomat Bryza

He expressed this opinion in the program Studio West with Antin Borkovsky on Espreso TV channel.

"From a brutal real-world political perspective, China is satisfied that the war will continue for some time. It is rhetorically supporting Russia, blaming the United States for NATO expansion and justifying the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I think that the Chinese leadership does not like the fact that Ukraine is suffering so much, that Russian troops are committing war crimes, and we know for sure that their biggest concern is that Putin might actually resort to the use of nuclear weapons. This is unacceptable to Xi Jinping and to China. But before Putin crosses that line, I think Xi Jinping has already calculated that continuing the war is beneficial to China, because both the United States and Europe are now preoccupied with Ukraine, which affects their economies," Bryza explained.

The diplomat is convinced that China may refuse to support the Russian Federation when it feels that Ukraine will seize the final initiative on the battlefield.

"However, as we have seen with the “zero Covid” policy, Xi Jinping can turn his course 180 degrees when something dramatic happens, such as nationwide protests against him and his “zero Covid” policy. Therefore, the more Ukraine succeeds on the battlefield and the stronger the unity of the transatlantic community and its allies in Australia and Japan, the more likely it is that China will begin to back away from its support for Russia and express a desire to side with the victors. As geopolitical power is realigned and Russia can no longer be considered a great power, China will want to take advantage of the new economic opportunities that will arise as a result. So, it all depends on Ukraine's victory on the battlefield, and this is the direction in which events are now moving," he added.