There are chances to break Putinism in 2023. Not Russia yet, but Putinism

If we briefly summarize 2022 and the prospects for 2023 for the Russian Federation, we can highlight the following problematic points:

1. Despite the lack of a vision for the future and a sense of total failure, two-thirds of Russians continue to say that the country is moving in the right direction. Without breaking this confidence, the Kremlin has nothing to fear. On the plus side for us: the upper middle class is very negative. One of the most important questions of 2023 is whether the conditional top management will be able to convey its anxiety to the middle echelon. If it can, the regime will begin to crack.

2. Russians will massively feel the deterioration of life in June-July. And their information machine will work to minimize this feeling (unfortunately, the fear of mythical loss of greatness is stronger than other real fears).  We are just now beginning to enter the period of the refrigerator's initial struggle with propaganda.

3. The consequences of the oil embargo remain unclear. The first weeks are very encouraging for us. If the trends are the same, the Russian Federation will begin to have real problems with the implementation of the budget. But I want to emphasize: it is still too early to make long-term forecasts.

“Despite the lack of a vision for the future and a sense of total failure, two-thirds of Russians continue to say that the country is moving in the right direction. Without breaking this confidence, the Kremlin has nothing to fear. On the plus side for us: the upper middle class is very negative.”

4. The Russians have just now begun to search for an internal enemy (the reason for such a delay is a very long accumulation of psychological fatigue and a certain deterioration of life). But for now, Putin remains an untouchable person for them. True, there are pluses here for us: Putin has lost the charm of sacredness for the most radical part of the electorate. And now we see how some of the heralds of this radicalism are bought, and others are marginalized. Actually, it is important for us that radicals are an icebreaker. I really hope that they will punch as many holes as possible in this titanic.

5. Separate attention should be paid to the fact that the new draconian laws will force law enforcement officers to search for witches.  This will become a trend in 2023. And here there is an opportunity for positivity: it is quite real that thanks to the injustice that always accompanies such processes, new moral authorities may appear. Although there is a problem: Russian society is so unempathetic, so unsympathetic even to those close to them, that sometimes it seems that they are made of armor of stupid aggressiveness (the reason for aggressiveness is the complete lack of reasons for pride, especially against the background of the fact that even the most stupid representatives of the deep people understand,  that they stopped being afraid).

“Russian society is so unempathetic, so unsympathetic even to those close to them, that sometimes it seems that they are made of armor of blunt aggressiveness.”

6. No regional separatism currently exists. The only thing we can note is that the regional elites have taken a wait-and-see position. And they don't think about independence: they want decentralization.

7. About a month ago, the Kremlin realized that they would not be able to break the unity of the collective event. From that moment, in fact, talks about negotiations stopped. Because negotiations were needed not for a truce, but for the split of the coalition. On the eastern front, the main problem for Moscow remains the neutrality of China. And this despite the fact that, according to the latest government decision, the national welfare fund will now consist of two parts: gold (up to 40%) and yuan (up to 70%).

8. Putin always acts by analogies to previous actions. I already wrote a few weeks ago that at one time he made a decision for himself that the main strategy was not to give up, no matter what the cost of his actions (this was demonstrated in Syria and Venezuela). Now he made such a decision about himself. Simply put, he decided on a marathon.

In 2023, Russia will be significantly weaker than this year. And indeed, in 2023 there are chances to break Putinism. Not Russia, yet, but Putinism.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.