Russia's attempts to seize eastern Ukraine may take two years - Wagner Group head Prigozhin

The Guardian reports that the leader of the Wagner PMC has said that it may take Russia two years to capture all of eastern Ukraine. This suggests that at least some key figures in Moscow are preparing for a protracted conflict.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has emerged from the shadows to become a high-ranking figure since the war began, suggested that Russia is now focused on capturing the rest of Donbas, which it has not occupied since the war began almost a year ago.

According to an associate of President Vladimir Putin, this will take “about another year and a half to two years.” If the goal is to occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, it will “take about three years,” he said.

Ukrainian officials expect an imminent Russian offensive, possibly by the first anniversary of the start of the war on February 24, although a new attack on the capital, Kyiv, is not considered likely after a failed offensive last year.

According to one scenario, Russian troops will try to surround the eastern army of Ukraine from the north and south, tank columns will cross the international border in the direction of Sumy and Poltava and simultaneously attack from the occupied southern part of Zaporizhzhia region.

Prigozhin founded the Wagner PMC in 2014, but did not admit it until last September. Also known as 'Putin's chef', Prigozhin has a restaurant business that organizes dinners with the Russian president.

Wagner operates as a Kremlin-sanctioned rival to the Russian Defense Ministry and is responsible for the capture of the town of Bakhmut in Donbas in a meat grinder of a battle that claimed thousands of lives in a few months.

In a conversation with a Russian blogger, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner PMC troops were gradually advancing toward Bakhmut, but admitted that Russian soldiers had not yet been able to capture it in some of the fiercest fighting since the beginning of the war.

“It is probably too early to say that we are close. There are many roads out and fewer roads in. Ukrainian troops are well trained and, like any large city, it is impossible to capture it from head-on. We are managing very well. First, we have to quietly take [Bakhmut] and then we can say loud and clear that we have taken it,” Prigozhin said.

Western officials estimate that Wagner has about 50,000 soldiers fighting in Ukraine. They estimate that about 40,000 of them are convicts recruited from Russian prisons who have been thrown to the front lines and ordered to attack the enemy with minimal training. But on Friday, Prigozhin said he was no longer recruiting people from prisons.

He said that he did not care if Wagner's fighters “love the Third Reich” or have “gang tattoos”, saying that the only thing that matters is “how you treat your brothers in arms” and how you behave in battle. In an interview, he denied using convicts as cannon fodder.

Earlier on Saturday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeated his call for fighter jets and said he was doing everything he could to convince Ukraine's Western allies to give his embattled country modern and effective wings - despite doubts about the practicality of the proposal.

In a video message, Zelenskyy called his trip to the UK this week inspiring and paid tribute to Rishi Sunak, the British people and King Charles. He said he was glad to see Ukrainian soldiers - "our guys" - learning to drive Challenger 2 tanks at Camp Lulworth in Dorset.

The President of Ukraine said he received positive signals during his European "diplomatic marathon," which included meetings in Paris and Brussels with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other EU leaders.

There is every reason to believe that Western tanks and long-range artillery will be delivered to Kyiv in the coming months.

However, there is less clarity on the supply of modern combat aircraft to Ukraine. So far, only Poland has said it is ready to provide Kyiv with F-16s, but only as part of a broader NATO initiative. On Friday, the Biden administration noted that any country can decide to provide Western aircraft on its own.

Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, said that the aircraft could play a vital role in Ukraine's victory and help defeat Moscow within a year. He estimated that without them, it would take three to five years for Ukrainian forces to win, given the current level of Western support.

“The sooner we deliver them the capability to achieve a decisive outcome, the sooner that [the war] could be over,” Hodges told the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

At a press conference with Zelenskyy on Wednesday, Sunak said that ”nothing is off the table” when asked about the possibility of transferring RAF fighter jets. But Defense Secretary Ben Wallace was more cautious. It appears that Britain is slowly dashing hopes that Typhoon jets will be sent to Kyiv this year, if at all.

London emphasizes the technical and political difficulties of such a move. Wallace emphasized on Thursday that any deliveries of Western aircraft would likely be post-conflict and argued that the Typhoons have all the difficulties of a Formula 1 team due to the need to train engineers and pilots.

According to insiders, about 100 ground crew members are needed for every six planes, and one insider estimates that it could take six to nine months to train experienced Ukrainian MiG-29 or Su-27 pilots, although one Ukrainian pilot told the Guardian last week that he would need three months.

Another Ukrainian pilot told Sky News that while he would be happy to fly the Typhoon if offered, he “doesn't know how realistic this plan could be.” He said the aircraft is “very expensive” and limited in number, arguing that the US F-16 would be a better option.

The United Kingdom has committed to training pilots to fly NATO-standard fighter jets and is to receive the first batch of Ukrainian trainees in the spring. The Ukrainian government remains optimistic that "several" countries will provide fighter jets later this year. “It seems that this issue can be resolved,” Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy's office, said Friday.

In his latest statement, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is able to shoot down most Russian missiles with its existing air defense capabilities. But some have gotten through, he acknowledged. Over the past 48 hours, the Kremlin has fired several waves of attack drones and ballistic missiles, hitting targets across the country in what could be reconnaissance attacks before a larger offensive.

Ukraine's Air Force says it shot down 20 Iranian-made 'kamikaze' drones on Friday night. They were launched at critical infrastructure facilities from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. One of them hit an energy facility in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy's hometown, causing serious damage.

• The United States recognizes Wagner's PMС as international criminal organization