Russian military operations aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine, not at achieving goals on battlefield - ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts say that Russia believes that the military stalemate will deplete Western support over the winter, giving its troops an advantage despite high casualties and a constant shortage of trained personnel, ammunition, and equipment.

According to ISW estimates, Russian troops have been trying to regain the initiative in military operations since at least mid-November 2023, and are now likely to be ready for offensive operations during difficult autumn and winter conditions in several areas of the front.

At the same time, the report notes that the Kremlin is organizing long-term information operations aimed at deterring Western security assistance to Ukraine. Therefore, the Russian command may have decided that such actions are more effective, so military efforts to seize the initiative could provoke further debate in the West about helping Ukraine.

• Earlier, ISW reported that Russian troops are intensifying their offensive in difficult weather conditions and are trying to seize the initiative at the front before the presidential elections in Russia. However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are consolidating their positions where they are not conducting counteroffensives.