Russian forces plan false-flag attack on Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant to justify their failure in Kherson Oblast - ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the information, Russian military leaders have evidently learned from previous informational and operational failures during the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and likely they are attempting to mitigate the informational and functional consequences of failing to defend against another successful Ukrainian advance.

The Russian military may believe breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. Surovikin claimed that he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant (HPP), which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast. Saldo echoed this claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson city.

ISW reports that the Kremlin could use such an attack to overshadow news of its third humiliating withdrawal.

• The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration warns civilians against "evacuation" to Russia, because amid the Ukrainian Armed Forces' successes, the occupying Russian forces want to take Ukrainians hostage and cover themselves with human shields. 

• On October 19, the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, Vitalii Kim, warned that the Russian forces were preparing provocations with the shelling of Kherson.

• Volodymyr Saldo, the head of the occupation authorities of the Kherson region, said that all units of the "administration" of the Kherson region are moving to the left bank of the Dnipro River.